000 AXNT20 KNHC 241759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force winds have diminished during the day with latest ASCAT indicating fresh to strong winds north of Colombia. These winds will strengthen in the evening increasing to gale force once again tonight, south of 11.5N between 74W and 75W. Significant wave heights likely peak around 11 ft downstream of the ongoing gales. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force speeds at night through the rest of the week, possibly reaching gale force once again Fri night and Sat night as high pressure builds over the western subtropical Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 01S21W. The ITCZ extends from 01S21W to 04S35W. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted from 03S to 10N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad and deep upper level high is centered over central Mexico with large-scale subsidence occurring over the Gulf of Mexico. GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry lower to mid- levels with some upper-level moisture streaming over the northern Gulf. At the surface, weak high pressure ridge extends across the eastern Gulf, with the latest ship and buoy obs indicating moderate to fresh southerly flow continues over the western Gulf. A surface trough is present over the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to 18N93W. Seas in this region are generally running 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail beneath the surface ridge with seas 3 ft or less. Fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf will diminish this afternoon. High pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern Gulf through Sat, generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin for the next few days. Fresh northeast to east winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat and Sat night, with increasing winds and seas expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. A 500-mb trough persists over the eastern Caribbean this morning, with isolated showers noted in radar imagery south from Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles east of 65W. At the surface, a ridge across the subtropical western Atlantic is maintaining moderate trade winds across much of the basin, with fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the NW Caribbean. Seas are running 8-11 ft within the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, and less than 8 ft over the rest of the basin. High pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through this week. Minimal gale force winds are expected offshore the coast of Colombia Fri night and Sat night as high pressure builds over the sub- tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layer ridge extends across the subtropical western Atlantic waters this morning. A surface trough in the western Atlantic extends from 31N78W to 27N80W with minimal convection near the axis. Further east, a cold front reaches across the northern portion of our central Atlantic waters from 31N36W to 29N52W, then stalls and weakens to near 31N59W. Scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds poleward of the front, accompanied by 8-10 ft seas in northerly swell. South of the front, 28N59W to 21N68W and from 30N35W to 25N37W with scattered showers and tstorms in their vicinity. Elsewhere, no notable weather or marine conditions are associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the Atlantic waters generally south of 20N and east of 50W. A high pressure ridge will persist across the northern waters for the next several days. Fresh to strong southwest winds will build seas offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the waters north of 22N late Wed night through Fri night while weakening. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern waters Thu night through Fri night. High pressure will rebuild over the northern waters Fri night through Sat night. $$ Torres