000 AXNT20 KNHC 241007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 607 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Partial overnight scatterometer data showed marginal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, south of 11.5N between 74W and 75W. These gales are expected to diminish by 24/1200 UTC. Significant wave heights likely peak around 11 ft just downstream of the ongoing gales. Winds near the coast of Colombia will likely pulse to near gale force speeds at night through the rest of the week, possibly reaching gale force once again Fri night and Sat night as high pressure builds over the subtropical Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N15W to 02S22W. The ITCZ extends from 02S22W to 05S31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 07N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Large-scale subsidence is occurring over the Gulf of Mexico this morning beneath a deep-layer ridge that extends across the basin. The latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry lower to mid-levels with some upper-level moisture streaming over the northern Gulf. At the surface, a weak high pressure ridge extends across the eastern Gulf, with the latest ship and buoy obs indicating moderate to fresh southerly flow continues over the western Gulf. Seas in this region are generally running 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail beneath the surface ridge with seas 3 ft or less. Fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf will diminish later today. A high pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern Gulf through Sat, generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin for the next few days. Fresh NE to E winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat and Sat night, with increasing winds and seas expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. A 500-mb trough persists over the eastern Caribbean this morning, with isolated showers noted in radar imagery near the Leeward Islands and over the NE Caribbean offshore waters. At the surface, a ridge across the subtropical western Atlantic is maintaining moderate trade winds across much of the basin, with fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the NW Caribbean. Seas are running 8-11 ft within the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, and less than 8 ft over the rest of the basin. A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through this week. Marginal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will diminish later this morning. Gale force winds are possible offshore of Colombia once again Fri night and Sat night as high pressure builds over the subtropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish later today. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layer ridge extends across the subtropical western Atlantic waters this morning. A cold front reaches across the northern portion of our central Atlantic waters from 32N41W to 29N50W to 29N55W, then becomes stationary to near 30N60W. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds poleward of the front, accompanied by 8-10 ft seas in northerly swell. Elsewhere, a weak surface trough extends from 28N59W to 21N55W. No notable weather or marine conditions are associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the Atlantic waters generally south of 20N and east of 50W. A high pressure ridge will persist across the western Atlantic for the next several days. Fresh to strong SW winds will build seas offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the offshore waters N of 22N late Wed night through Fri night while weakening. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern offshore waters Thu night through Fri night. High pressure will rebuild over the western Atlantic Fri night through Sat night. $$ B Reinhart