000 AXNT20 KNHC 240558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 158 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force winds are ongoing north of Colombia, from 11N-12N between 74W-76W. This will continue through early Tues morning, 24/1200 UTC. Significant wave heights are likely to peak around 11 ft near the coast of Colombia during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N15W to 02S24W. The ITCZ continues from 02S24W to 04S31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 03S-06N between 08W-23W. Isolated showers are within 200 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level ridge centered over Mexico is bringing subsidence to most of the Gulf. High clouds can be seen in the eastern Gulf. Surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds north of the Yucatan. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are noted in the western and central Gulf, with light winds in the eastern Gulf. The latest altimeter and surface data indicate sea heights ranging from 1 to 4 ft. A high pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sat, generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin this week. Fresh southerly flow is expected over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue as a low pressure trough develops over northern Mexico and southern Texas. Fresh NE to E winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours. A cold front may move across the western Gulf Sat and Sat night, with increasing winds and seas expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. An upper-level trough extends across the NW Caribbean while mid- level troughing extends across the central Caribbean. This is supporting scattered showers across Puerto Rico, USVI, the Mona Passage and into Hispaniola. Scattered thunderstorms are also observed off the SW Hispaniola coast. Scattered showers are moving quickly across the Leeward Islands while isolated showers are noted in the Windward Islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts gale force winds near the northern Colombian coast with fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean. Strong to near gale force winds are observed in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across the basin. The latest altimeter data depicts up to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean with 3 to 6 ft throughout the rest of the basin. A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain generally fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through the week. Strong NE trades off the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale force tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will persist through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight, then gradually diminish through midweek. Short-period NE swell across the waters east of the Leeward Islands will gradually subside through Tue night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is noted in the central Atlantic from 22N57W to 21N53W with no significant precipitation associated with it. Another trough is in the western Atlantic from 28N76W to 22N76W and also does not have significant precipitation associated with it. A cold front is beginning to sink down across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N48W and stretches westward to 29N54W to 31N63W. Some showers are along this boundary. A high pressure ridge will persist across the northern waters for the next several days. Fresh to strong SW winds will build seas offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the northern waters late Wed night through Fri while weakening. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern and central waters Thu night through Fri night. High pressure will rebuild over the northern waters Fri night through Sat night. $$ AReinhart