000 AXNT20 KNHC 231800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Scatterometer data from 23/1400 UTC showed fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of 12N between 73W-74W. The winds have diminished as expected during the daytime hours, however, winds will pulse to gale force again tonight into early Tue as strong high pressure ridge dominated the subtropical western Atlantic. Significant wave heights are likely to peak around 12 ft within the gales near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 01N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to 04S37W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from the Equator to 10N between the coast of Africa to 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep-layer ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico this morning, with 1022 mb surface high pressure analyzed near the Florida Big Bend.a surface trough is very well seen in the latest observations east of high pressure centered extending from 28N82W to 25N83W. To the south, surface trough has moved off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate return flow persists across the eastern Gulf with 4-6 ft seas. High pressure ridge will generally prevail across E Gulf of Mexico through Fri night. This will help support generally quiescent winds and seas through at least Fri night across most of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop this evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, then diminish on Tue. A cold front may approach the Texas coast late Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. An upper and mid-level trough axis extends across the eastern Caribbean, with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted in radar and satellite imagery downstream of the trough from 15N to 19N across Hispaniola, the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico, USVI, the Lesser Antilles and the NE Caribbean offshore waters. ASCAT data revealed a large area of fresh to strong winds north of 15N across the Mona Passage and the Anegada Passage, and in the SW Caribbean south of 16N to 10N fresh to strong are noted. Fairly benign marine conditions prevail across the NW Caribbean under the influence of deep-layer ridging. The Bermuda High will maintain generally fresh to strong trades over S-central Caribbean through the week. NE trades off the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale force tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through tonight, then diminish slightly through midweek. Short-period NE swell across the waters east of the Leeward Islands will subside gradually by Tue night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends across the western Atlantic from 1028 mb high pressure centered near 28N62W. A mid to upper-level low pressure system noted in GOES-16 water vapor imagery over the central Atlantic is supporting a couple of weak troughs and a surface low. The trough is analyzed near 29N53W and 22N50W and a 1020 mb low is near 26N48W with a trough that extends from 31N47W to 22N45W. No significant marine conditions are occurring with either system. Farther east, a low pressure system has moved inland with a weakening cold front extending westward from 20N16W to 30N35W. Strong northerly winds behind 23N are seen in the latest ASCAT. Scattered weak convection is noted along the boundary and near the Canary Islands. The Bermuda High will persist across NW waters for the next few days. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop east of Florida Wed, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the N waters late Wed night through Fri while weakening. The Bermuda High will then rebuild over the N waters Fri night. $$ Torres