000 AXNT20 KNHC 231019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Scatterometer data from 23/0300 UTC confirmed marginal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, south of 12N between 74W and 75W. These winds are expected to diminish later this morning, then pulse to gale force again tonight into early Tue morning as a strong high pressure ridge dominates the subtropical western Atlantic. Significant wave heights likely peak around 12 ft within the gales near the coast of Colombia this morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 01S28W. The ITCZ continues from 01S28W to 04S34W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 00N to 08N between 05W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep-layer ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico this morning, with 1023 mb surface high pressure analyzed near 29N85W. A surface trough has moved off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds west of the trough axis. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate return flow persists across the western Gulf with 2-4 ft seas. High pressure will generally prevail across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Fri night. The gradient between this high and a low pressure trough expected to develop over south Texas will support fresh southerly winds over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue. Fresh NE to E winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri, then diminish during the overnight and early morning hours. A cold front may approach the Texas coast late Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. A mid to upper-level trough axis extends across the eastern Caribbean this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted in radar imagery downstream of the trough over Puerto Rico, USVI, and the NE Caribbean offshore waters. Overnight scatterometer data revealed a large area of fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Altimeter data from 23/0600 UTC showed 7-10 ft seas in this region. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring through the Windward and Mona passages, as well as south of Hispaniola. Fairly benign marine conditions prevail across the NW Caribbean under the influence of deep-layer ridging. A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the week. Gale force winds off the coast of Colombia early this morning will diminish today, then pulse to gale force again tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through tonight, then diminish slightly through midweek. Short-period NE swell across the waters east of the Leeward Islands will subside Tue into Tue night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends across the western Atlantic from 1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N66W. A stationary front is located across the far NW waters from 32N77W to near Jacksonville, Florida. Elsewhere, a mid to upper-level low pressure system noted in GOES-16 water vapor imagery over the central Atlantic is supporting a couple of weak surface lows analyzed near 27N53W and 26N47W. No significant marine conditions are occurring with either system, and earlier convection associated with the second system has dissipated. Farther east, an occluded low pressure system is nearing the coast of southern Morocco, with its associated cold front extending from Western Sahara across the eastern Atlantic to 23N25W to 30N34W. Strong northerly winds and 10-16 ft seas are located in the western semicircle of the low. Scattered weak convection is noted near the Canary Islands. The stationary front off the coast of northern Florida will lift northward later this morning. A high pressure ridge will persist across the northern waters west of 60W for the next several days. Fresh to strong SW flow will develop over the offshore waters north of 29N Wed, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the western Atlantic late Wed night through Fri while weakening. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic again by Fri night. $$ B Reinhart