000 AXNT20 KNHC 221016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, per recent scatterometer data. Winds near the coast of Colombia are expected to pulse to gale force between 00-12 UTC Mon as the ridge gradually moves southward. Seas will build to 8-12 ft Mon morning within the gale force winds. Looking ahead, winds will continue pulsing to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N36W to 03N40W to near 00N46W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 10W and 14W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 00N to 05N between 18W and 22W, and from 01N to 06N between 41W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from weak low pressure off the coast of Brownsville, Texas across the NW Gulf to 28N90W. There, the front becomes stationary and reaches to near Panama City, Florida. Radar imagery shows isolated showers north of the front over the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 28.5N85W. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh winds south of this high over the Straits of Florida. Fresh winds were also noted over the SW Gulf offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. The frontal system over the northern Gulf will lift northward and move inland along the Gulf Coast later today into tonight. Atlantic high pressure extending westward across central Florida into the eastern Gulf will change little through Thu night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the gale warning tonight off the coast of Colombia. GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates dry air prevails across most of the basin as a deep-layer ridge dominates the western Atlantic into the NW Caribbean. Some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is noted south of Hispaniola and near the Leeward Islands, likely supported by a weak 500-mb low over the eastern Caribbean. Overnight scatterometer data revealed strong winds through the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic. Strong winds were also noted near the coast of Colombia, where a 03 UTC altimeter pass indicated seas were running 7-9 ft. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds were sampled in the lee of Cuba. A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale force speeds offshore of the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Mon night, then diminish slightly through midweek. NE swell across the waters east of the Leeward Islands will subside by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds may pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pronounced upper-level low noted in GOES-16 water vapor imagery over the central Atlantic is associated with a weak surface low near 29N50W this morning. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh winds in its NW quadrant, with 8-10 ft seas in NE swell based on available altimeter data. In fact, N to NE swell is generating a large area of 8 ft seas from the low center southwestward to Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. A second, mid-level low pressure center is supporting scattered moderate convection from 25N to 29N between 43W and 46W. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge dominates the subtropical western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front approaching the southeastern U.S. coast will move southward today, then stall just north of the forecast waters tonight before lifting northward as a warm front early Mon. A high pressure ridge will prevail across the western Atlantic for the next several days. Fresh SW flow will develop over the northern Florida offshore waters Wed and Wed night, ahead of another cold front that may move across the NW portion Thu and Thu night. $$ B Reinhart