000 AXNT20 KNHC 212344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlc ridging S over the northern Caribbean will tighten the pressure gradient over the south central basin and support gale force winds along the coast of Colombia from Sun evening through late Mon morning. Winds over the S central Caribbean will lessen Tue through Thu as low pres moving NE from near Cape Hatteras weakens the ridge N of the Caribbean. For further details see the National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for specific marine details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01S31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 06N between 10W and 22W, and from 00N to 03N between 31W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front crosses the far NW Gulf from just E of Pensacola Florida to near Brownsville, Texas. Extensive stratiform cloudiness and patchy light rain are observed along and N of this boundary. A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 18N94.5W to 22N95.5W to 25N94W. Only shallow cloudiness is associated with this trough and no significant shower coverage is seen. The front will transition to a warm front tonight and lift back N and inland through Sun evening. Fresh NE winds N of the front will become light S winds Sun. Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening along the western and northern sides of the Yucatan Peninsula as a thermal trough moves NW from the Yucatan Peninsula over the Bay of Campeche. Winds associated with these troughs will weaken overnight as the troughs dissipate. Otherwise, Atlc high pressure will continue to ridge W along the northern Gulf coast through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section regarding gale force winds expected along the northern coast of Colombia Sun night. Otherwise, strong high pressure ridging S over the Caribbean is generally supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the basin. Winds over the basin will lessen Tue through Thu as low pres moving NE from near Cape Hatteras weakens the ridge N of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue through the Windward Passage through late Sun night and south of Hispaniola through Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong winds may pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night, Tue night through Thu night. A weak surface trough extending N from eastern Cuba near 20N76W to E of the Bahamas near 26N75W is only generating shallow convection and isolated showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface high pressure ridge extending SW from just N of the Azores to near Florida is broken by 1018 mb low pres centered near 30N48W and a surface trough extending from the low to 22N45W. Trade winds over the tropical N Atlc S of the ridge are moderate to locally fresh. A high pressure ridge extending from Bermuda to Florida will maintain fresh to strong winds and high seas S of 29N tonight. Fresh NE swells across this same area and just to the N will also gradually subside tonight. A weak cold front will move southward from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast to off the SE U.S. coast on Sun, then stall E of northern Florida by Sun night, lifting back NW on Mon. It will then lift back N as a warm front by early Mon. Another cold front could approach the NW portion Wed night, slowly shifting E-SE as it weakens through Thu night. $$ CAM