000 AXNT20 KNHC 211806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong high pressure in the SW N Atlc extending into the northern Caribbean will tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central basin and support gale force winds along the coast of Colombia beginning Sun evening and continuing through late Mon morning. For further details see the National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for specific marine details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 06N12W to 03N20W to 03N25W to 00N30W to 00N40W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 01N to 07N between 18W and 30W, and from 05S to 05N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the SE CONUS to the Florida Panhandle to 29N88W where it stalls and continues along 27N95W to Brownsville, Texas. Scattered showers are behind the front along the Texas coastal and adjacent waters. Patchy fog is being reported within 60 nm ahead of the stationary front. A surface trough prevails in the SW Gulf extending from 23N93W to the western Bay of Campeche. There is no shower activity associated with this trough. The front will transition to a warm front tonight and lift back to the north and inland through Sun evening. Fresh northeast winds behind the front will become light southerly winds Sun. Strong northeast to east winds will develop each evening north and along the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula and diminish in the mornings as a thermal trough moves offshore the Peninsula and to the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure extending westward across the area will change little through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure in the SW N Atlc extends southward across the Caribbean supporting mainly moderate to fresh winds across the basin. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas to Hispaniola supporting isolated showers in the island. Another surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean S of 18N65W. Low level precipitable water imagery show shallow tropical moisture across the eastern and central basin, which along a deep layered trough support isolated showers and tstms in the vicinity of the trough, and Jamaica and Nicaragua adjancent waters. The high pressure over the western Atlantic and northern Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Mon night before diminishing in coverage through Wed night. Winds are expected to reach gale along the coast of Colombia at night beginning Sun and through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will continue through the Windward Passage through late Sun night and south of Hispaniola through Tue afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure dominates the SW N Atlc and the eastern Atlc waters supporting fair weather conditions. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface trough extending across the Bahamas supporting isolated showers in that region. Over the north-central Atlc, another surface trough extends from a 1019 mb low centered near 30N47W to 26N46W. A third surface trough is ahead of the low extending from 25N43W to 19N52W. Isolated showers associated with this trough are N of 24N between 40W and 48W. The high pressure ridge extending from Bermuda to Florida will maintain fresh to strong winds and high seas south of 24N and east of 75W through tonight. Seas in this area will subside through Sun. A weak cold front will move southward from the Mid-Atlantic coast to off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sun and become stationary east of northern Florida. It will then lift back to the north as a warm front on Mon. A cold front may approach the far northwest part of the area Tue. Fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of this front will continue through Wed night. Otherwise, the high pressure ridge will shift southward to near 26N by Wed. $$ Ramos