000 AXNT20 KNHC 201650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to 00N38W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm N and within 30 nm S of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from Bermuda to the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Mid- to upper-level ridging also prevails over most of the Gulf. A cold front over SE Texas is moving toward the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring just ahead of and along with the front and are remaining just inland at this time. Some of these showers will likely move into the NW Gulf this evening. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, south of 26N, and fresh E winds in the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are elsewhere. The slow-moving cold front will move offshore Texas tonight, then stall and weaken over the N Gulf during this weekend. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf each night, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong winds will accompany this trough. Elsewhere in the Gulf, a ridge will prevail through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level troughing extends across the north-central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted from 16N-19N between 75W-84W, including waters near Jamaica. Isolated to scattered showers are also seen extending from over Hispaniola to the waters south of Puerto Rico to near Guadeloupe. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted over the NE Caribbean north of 15N and east of 75W, including the Mona and Windward Passages. Similar winds are south of Cuba. Strong winds are offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. A ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Strongest winds will be near the coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic west of 60W. In the west Atlantic west of 65W, fresh to strong winds are from 20N-26N, while gentle to moderate wind speeds are north of 26N. A 1016 mb low is near 33N43W. A slow-moving cold front associated with this low is from 32N42W to 23N48W. A surface trough extends south of the front from 23N48W to 13N56W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm east of the cold front, mainly north of 24N. Isolated showers are elsewhere along the front and surface trough. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 600 nm NW of the front and trough. In the E Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N13W to 29N20W to 32N26W. Fresh to strong N winds are N of the front, mainly east of 21W. The 1016 mb low near 33N43W is forecast to move slowly SW to near 29N47W Sat morning. In the west Atlantic, fresh to strong winds will continue south of 25N through tonight. A weak cold front drifting SE from the coast of Georgia this weekend will stall east of northern Florida Mon night, then lift north as a warm front on Tue. $$ Hagen