000 AXNT20 KNHC 191026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 626 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale force NE to E winds will continue through 12Z near the coast of Colombia, then pulsing to gale force tonight. Seas up to 10 ft are forecast south of 12N between 74W-76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S39W. Scattered showers are noted from 00N-03N between 15W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak mid- to upper-level ridging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is leading to mostly fair weather across the basin. Patchy fog continues over the NW Gulf, N of 27N and W of 88W. Fresh winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche area with the thermal trough currently extending along 92W. The remainder of the basin is experiencing gentle to moderate SE winds. Seas are 2 to 6 ft. The surface ridge along the U.S. gulf coast will maintain moderate return flow over the Gulf today. Low pressure in central Mexico and a west Atlantic ridge will support fresh to locally strong SE winds across the basin on Fri. A cold front entering the NW Gulf on Sat will weaken and stall Sat night and Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Scattered showers are moving across the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters mainly north of 17N. Fresh to strong east- northeast winds are noted across the central Caribbean outside of the gale area, and over the NW Caribbean, particularly off the coast of Cuba. Seas are up to 8 ft across the central Caribbean, and generally 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. The surface ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Strongest winds will be near the coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from a 1018 mb surface low near 32N46W to 25N48W to 20N53W. A surface trough extends west of the front from 29N48W to 25N53W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 45 nm east of the front mainly north of 28N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are behind the front and trough with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds ahead of the cold front. To the south, another surface trough extends from 19N52W to 12N52W. Strengthening high pressure over the west-central Atlantic will increase winds and seas S of 25N through Fri night. A weak cold front drifting SE from the coast of Georgia this weekend will stall east of northern Florida by Mon night. $$ ERA