000 AXNT20 KNHC 190536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale force NE to E winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through the night and weakening by Thu morning, then pulsing to gale force on Thursday night. Seas up to 10 ft are forecast south of 12N between 74W-76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N40W. Scattered showers are noted from 00N-03N between 10W-20W, and along the ITCZ mainly west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak mid- to upper-level ridging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is leading to mostly fair weather across the basin. Patchy fog continues over the NW Gulf, N of 27N and W of 88W. Fresh winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the basin is experiencing gentle to moderate SE winds. Seas are 2 to 6 ft. The surface ridge over the SE United States will maintain moderate SE return flow over Gulf through Thu night. Low pressure forming over northern Mexico and a strengthening W Atlantic ridge will support fresh to strong return flow across most of the basin Fri. A cold front will slow down and stall over the NW Gulf Sat through Sun, then dissipate by Mon. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as a thermal trough heads NW from the Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Scattered showers are moving across the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters mainly north of 17N. Fresh to strong east- northeast winds are noted across the central Caribbean outside of the gale area, and over the NW Caribbean, particularly off the coast of Cuba. Seas are up to 8 ft across the central Caribbean, and generally 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Gale to near-gale force winds will affect the coast of Colombia through Mon night as high pressure ridge remains in place over the western Atlc. Strong winds will persist over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from a 1018 mb surface low near 32N45W to 24N48W to 21N54W. A surface trough extends west of the front from 30N47W to 26N55W to 31N65W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 45 nm east of the front mainly north of 25N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are behind the front and trough with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds ahead of the cold front. To the south, another surface trough extends from 20N47W to 10N52W. Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlantic will increase winds and seas S of 27N tonight through Fri night. A cold front will slowly move SE from the coasts of Georgia and northern Florida Sun to stall over the NW waters near 29N by Mon night. $$ ERA