000 AXNT20 KNHC 182352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale force NE to E winds are expected tonight and again on Thursday night near the coast of Colombia. Seas up to 10 ft are forecast in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 07N16W to 01N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. An area of numerous strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 00N-05N between 10W-19W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak mid- to upper-level ridging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is leading to mostly fair weather across the basin. Patchy fog continues over the NW Gulf, N of 27N and W of 88W. Fresh winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the basin is experiencing gentle to moderate SE winds. Seas are 2 to 6 ft. A ridge over the SE United States will maintain moderate SE return flow over Gulf through Thu night. Low pressure forming over northern Mexico and a strengthening W Atlantic ridge will support fresh to strong return flow across most of the basin Fri. A cold front will slow down and stall over the NW Gulf Sat through Sun, then dissipate by Mon. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as a thermal trough heads NW from the Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale event. A surface trough extends from the Mona Passage to north of Aruba, from 18N68W to 13N70W. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico and into eastern Hispaniola. Isolated showers are also noted over the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong east-northeast winds are noted across the central Caribbean in addition to the NW Caribbean, particularly off the coast of Cuba. Seas are up to 9 ft north of Colombia and 8 ft across the central Caribbean. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through this weekend. Gale to near gale force winds will affect the coast of Colombia through Mon night as high pressure ridge remains in place over the western Atlc. A surface trough extending from the Mona Passage to near 13N70W will shift W over the central Caribbean and dissipate by Thu night. Strong winds will persist over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southward from 31N45W to 27N48W and stalls from that point to 22N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the cold front from 25N-31N between 42W-46W. An E-W trough extends from 30N47W to 27N55W to 31N64W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are behind the front and trough with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds ahead of the cold front. Light showers are noted along this trough. To the south of this system, another trough extends from 22N50W to 10N52W with showers near this feature. Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlantic will increase winds and seas S of 27N tonight through Fri night. A cold front will slowly move SE from the coasts of Georgia and northern Florida Sun to stall over the NW waters near 29N by Mon night. $$ AReinhart