000 AXNT20 KNHC 181721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale force NE to E winds are expected tonight and again on Thursday night near the coast of Colombia. Seas up to 10 ft are forecast in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 11N15W to 05N18W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 02N-07N between 11W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 18W-24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-03N between 42W-51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 34W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak mid- to upper-level ridging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is leading to mostly fair weather across the basin. Patchy fog has been observed today over portions of the Texas and Louisiana nearshore waters. Fresh winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche and off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula behind the weakening thermal trough over the Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the basin is experiencing moderate SE winds. A weak surface ridge across the northern Gulf will maintain moderate SE return flow and patchy fog across the NW Gulf today. A strengthening W Atlantic ridge will support fresh return flow across most of the basin Thu into Fri. A slow-moving cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri, then stall and weaken over the northern Gulf Sat through Sun. Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening N of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the western tip of Puerto Rico to 14N69W. Scattered showers are noted with this trough, including near Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. The latest ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong winds in over the central Caribbean, including in the Windward and Mona Passages, and in the NW Caribbean north of 18N. Moderate trades are noted in the SW Caribbean west of 80W, and across the eastern Caribbean, east of the surface trough. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through this weekend, with strong to minimal gale force winds developing near the coast of Colombia tonight, and again Thu night as high pressure builds north of the area. The surface trough over the NE Caribbean will shift westward and weaken through Wed. Strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sun. Building high pressure over the NW Atlantic will increase winds and seas over the NE Caribbean and Leeward Islands Thu night into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An E-W surface ridge prevails along 30N between 65W-80W. In the central Atlantic, a 1016 mb low is near 32N47W. A cold front extends from the low to 24N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 210 nm east of the cold front, north of 25N. Strong S winds are within 150 nm east of the cold front, north of 28N. A surface trough extends from 21N50W to 10N53W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 180 nm east of the trough axis from 14N-21N. A 1031 mb high just S of the Azores near 36N26W extends surface ridging across the area between 20W-40W down to 15N. A 1010 mb low pressure is in the far E Atlantic just off the coast of Morocco near 32N11W. Scattered showers are seen north of 30N and east of 13W. Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlantic will increase winds and seas S of 27N tonight through Fri night. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and stall over the northern waters off northern Florida and Georgia late Sun and Sun night. $$ Hagen