000 AXNT20 KNHC 181055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to 04N25W. ITCZ extends from 04N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging dominates the basin supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds near the Yucatan Peninsula south of 23N between 87W-91W. Patchy fog continues to be reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north of 26N and west of 89W. Seas across the basin are ranging between 1 to 3 ft. High pressure ridge across the northern Gulf will maintain moderate SE return flow and patchy fog across the NW Gulf today. Low pressure forming over northern Mexico and a strengthening W Atlc ridge will support fresh return flow across most of the basin later this week. A slow-moving cold front will reach the NW Gulf Fri night, then stall and weaken over the northern Gulf Sat through Sun. Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening N of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends over the northeast Caribbean from 19N65W to 15N66W. Scattered showers are noted with this trough, moving westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds north of Colombia and the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the remainder of the basin. Seas are ranging between 3 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through this weekend, with near-gale force winds developing each night near the coast of Colombia. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia by Thu night as high pressure builds north of the area. The surface trough over the NE Caribbean will shift westward and weaken today. Strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sun. Building high pressure over the NW Atlc will increase winds and seas over the NE Caribbean and E of the Leeward Islands Thu night into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 28N71W to 25N72W with no significant weather associated with it. Farther east, a 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 29N50W with a warm front extending northeast to 31N48W. A cold front extends south of the low to 25N51W, then becomes stationary to 23N55W. A pre frontal trough extends from 27N47W to 24N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with these features from 23N-31N between 44W- 50W. A surface trough extends from 19N51W to 10N53W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front and low. Seas are 7 to 12 ft in the central Atlantic near the frontal system. The trough over the western waters will dissipate later today. Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlc will increase winds and seas S of 27N tonight through Fri night. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and stall over the northern waters late Sun and Sun night. $$ ERA