000 AXNT20 KNHC 172327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 727 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 00N24W. ITCZ extends from 00N24W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02S-05N between 09W-23W. Isolated thunderstorms are along the ITCZ between 31W-41W. A trough is near the Brazilian coast from 07N50W to 01S49W with scattered showers within 100 nm of it. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging dominates the basin supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. Patchy fog continues to be reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north of 26N and west of 89W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft. A weak high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf will maintain moderate SE return flow and patchy fog across the NW Gulf through Wed morning. Low pressure forming over northern Mexico and a strengthening W Atlc ridge will induce fresh return flow across most of the basin later this week. A slow-moving cold front will reach the northern Gulf Fri night, then stall and weaken Sat through Sun. Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is near the Virgin Islands from 19N64W to 14N64W. Showers are moving across the Virgin Islands westward into Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are seen across the Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds north of Colombia with fresh winds across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through this weekend, with near gale force winds expected each night near the coast of Colombia. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night as high pressure builds north of the area. A surface trough across the Anegada Passage along 64W will shift westward and weaken through Wed. Strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through at least Sat. Building high pressure over the NW Atlc will increase winds and seas over the NE Caribbean and east of the Leeward Islands Thu night into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough is in the western Atlantic from 31N74W to 25N75W with no significant weather associated with it. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from 21N52W to 10N54W with light showers and cloudiness near it. Farther north, a 1016 mb low is analyzed near 29N50W with a stationary front extending north to 31N48W. A cold front extends south of the low to 24N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N-31N between 44W-51W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front and low. Seas are 7 to 12 ft in the central Atlantic near the frontal system. A trough from 31N75W to 26N74W will dissipate tonight over the northern waters. Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlc will increase winds and seas south of 27N Wed night through Fri night. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Sat and slowly drop southward into the northern waters Sat night through Sun night. $$ AKR