000 AXNT20 KNHC 171802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa near the coast of Guinea-Bissau 11N15W to 01N21W. ITCZ extends from 01N21W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 00N to 05N between 11W-36W, and scattered showers near the coast of Brazil from 04S-00N between 36W to 43W. A surface trough is also observed over the Bay of Campeche near 22N91W to 18N93W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging dominates the basin supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds except over the SE portion NE of Cuba, where moderate to fresh easterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data from 23N-24N between 80W-84W. Patchy fog continues to be reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north of 26N and west of 89W. A weak ridge across the northern Gulf will produce moderate to fresh SE return flow and patchy morning fog across the NW Gulf through Wed. Low pressure forming over interior Mexico and a strengthening W Atlc ridge will induce fresh return flow across most of the basin later this week. A slow moving cold front will reach the northern Gulf Fri night, where it will stall and weaken through late Sat. Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate NE to E winds dominate the Caribbean waters, except for fresh NE winds over the waters south of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and and along the coast of Colombia. To the NE, a surface trough extends from 20N61W to 15N63W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough axis. High pressure across the NW Atlc will support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night. A surface trough across the Anegada Passage and into the Atlc along 63W-64W will shift slowly W to 70W and weaken through Thu morning. Strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola at night through Sat. Building high pressure will increase winds and seas over the NE Caribbean and east of the Leeward Islands Thu night through Sat ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N74W to 27N72W. This trough is well depicted in scatterometer data, with moderate to fresh southwesterly winds prevailing east of the trough, and moderate northeasterly winds prevailing west of the trough. To the east, the tail of a stationary front extends from 30N50W to 26N58W. A pre-frontal trough with a 1016 low pressure is centered near 28N49W to 23N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present along and east of the front to about 100 nm east, and scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 24N to 31N between 46W-50W east of the trough. There are a pair of troughs south of 18N, one around 400 nm east of the Lesser Antilles from 18N52W to 13N53W to 09N52W, and second trough is from 07N47W to 00N48W. No significant convection is noted near the first trough. However, the second trough shows area of moderate to isolated strong convection along the trough between 44W-50W. Further east, a weakening cold front extends into the Atlantic waters from 27N13W to 26N15W. ASCAT indicated northerly fresh winds behind the front across the Canary Islands to 21W. South of the front an area of fresh to strong is indicated from 19N-24N between 16N20W. Otherwise, surface ridging dominate the remainder central and eastern Atlc waters with fair weather. A trough from 27N73W to 31N77W will drift SW and dissipate later today. Strengthening high pressure north of the area will increase winds and seas south of 27N Wed night through Sat. A cold front will move off northern Florida on Sat night. $$ MMTorres