432 AXNT20 KNHC 170528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...FAR EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... Gale force winds continue near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Gale conditions will continue in this area through Tuesday morning. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 00N38W. A surface trough is analyzed from 07N43W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 08N and west of 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging dominates the basin supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds except over the SE portion, where moderate to fresh easterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula. Patchy fog continues to be reported in this region as well, which is expected to prevail through Tue morning. The weak high pressure ridge will persist through Wed. The pressure gradient will tighten later this week between the ridge and low pressure forming over inland Mexico, resulting in freshening return flow late this week. A cold front will slowly move southward into the northern Gulf Fri night through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate NE to E winds dominate the Caribbean waters, except for fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage and along the coast of Colombia. With high pressure dominating the Atlc waters N of the region, fresh to strong winds are expected to continue along Colombia through Sat. Also, strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola each night through Fri. Expect increasing winds in the lee of Cuba Wed night into Thu, and east of the Leeward Islands Thu night through Fri night as the high pressure strengthens north of the area. To the northeast, an area of low pressure currently E of Puerto Rico will weaken into a surface trough overnight. The surface trough will then move westward across the eastern Caribbean through Tue night supporting showers across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak low pressure centered near 30N74W extends a trough to the east of the central Bahamas. Farther east the tail of a cold front extends from 31N54W to 27N66W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N51W to 27N57W. Scattered moderate convection is present along the front and trough mainly north of 26N. To the south, a surface low centered near 19N62W. The trough is expected to move westward across the eastern Caribbean afterwards. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the low center. Otherwise, surface ridging dominate the remainder central and eastern Atlc waters with fair weather. Low pressure centered near 19N62W will weaken into a trough overnight and move westward across the eastern Caribbean afterwards. The other weak low pressure center near 30N74W will drift SW overnight, then dissipate on Tue. A cold front will move southward across the NE portion through Tue, followed by fresh winds and building seas east of 70W. High pressure will strengthen north of the area by midweek, resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the waters south of 27N Wed night through Sat. A cold front may approach the southeast U.S. coast by Sat night. $$ ERA