000 AXNT20 KNHC 161700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale force winds are expected each night near the coast of N Colombia during the next few nights. Winds will be below gale force during the day. Seas heights will range from 8 to 9 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/HSFAT2 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...FAR EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... Gale force N winds are beginning now, at 16/1500 UTC, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. Expect the gales to continue in this area through Tuesday morning. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 00N37W, then continues W of a surface trough from 01N47W to 01N50W. A surface trough is analyzed from 00N43W to 05N40W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen from 04S-05N between 36W-48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 15W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends along the N Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to north of Houston Texas. A NE-SW surface trough is over the NW Gulf of Mexico, to the south of the front. Scattered showers are located just inland and along the coast of Texas and NE Mexico. Isolated showers are possible just offshore. Drier air extends over the SE and central portion of the Gulf of Mexico due to mid-level ridging. Patchy fog is noted near the coast of the SE Louisiana delta region. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle winds over the northern Gulf and moderate speeds over the southern Gulf. A ridge extending from the western Atlantic westward across the Gulf of Mexico will change little through Fri. The pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge and low pressure forming over inland Mexico leading to some increase in winds and seas over the NW and N-central Gulf Wed night into Thu. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. Patchy fog is expected over portions of the NW Gulf, especially during the overnight and early morning hours into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb low is near 20N62W, about 120 nm NNE of the northernmost Leeward Islands. Scattered cumulus clouds and isolated showers on the south and west sides of the low are over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the NE Caribbean, north of 16N and east of 67W. Wind speeds associated with the low are gentle to moderate over the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere over the Caribbean Sea, mid-level ridging is leading to subsidence and mostly dry weather. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds from the Windward Passage to the E tip of Jamaica. Strong winds are also in the south-central Caribbean, with locally near-gale near the coast of N Colombia. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected each night near the coast of Colombia through the period. Strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola each night and into the mornings through Fri. Expect increasing winds in the lee of Cuba Wed night into Thu, and east of the Leeward Islands Thu night through Fri night as high pressure strengthens north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N56W to 29N67W to a 1021 mb low near 31N74W to Jacksonville Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of this frontal system. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front, east of 63W. West of 63W, isolated showers are along and north of the front. Weak surface ridging and fair weather are over the NW Bahamas. A 1015 mb low is near 20N62W, about 120 nm NNE of the northernmost Leeward Islands. Isolated showers are within 270 nm of the low. A surface trough extends from the low to 30N55W. Isolated showers are along and E of the surface trough, to 49W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the surface trough and 70W, mainly south of 27N. Surface ridging prevails over most of the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1032 mb high near the Azores. In the far E Atlantic, a cold front extends from the coast of Morocco near 31N10W to 30N14W. Strong to near gale force N winds are behind this front, with gale force winds near the coast of Morocco between 30N-31N. The 1015 mb low pressure is forecast to weaken to a trough near the Leeward Islands this evening. The weak cold front extending from 32N56W to 29N67W to 31N74W will move southward across the northern waters this afternoon and tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Later this week, strengthening high pressure north of the area will result in increasing easterly winds and building seas, mainly across the waters S of 27N, Wed night through early Fri and S of 25N Fri night. $$ Hagen