000 AXNT20 KNHC 161110 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 710 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... The forecast at 16/0600 UTC consists of : NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet, within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. The wind speeds will slow down, to less than gale-force, in about 12 hours. Gale-force winds will develop, again, 24 hours from the starting time of the forecast, at 17/0600 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/ previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area: AGADIR, starting at 16/1200 UTC and ending at 17/0000 UTC. Please read the Meteo-France forecast, listed under the WMO header WONT50 LFPW, or at http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING. 0723.1607234327029.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N15W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N18W, curving to 03N20W and 02N26W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to 02S34W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N southward between 14W and 35W. A surface trough is along 04N41W 02N43W, to the Equator along 44W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 02N southward between 38W and 46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb Gulf of Mexico high pressure center that is near 29N87W, into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge is along 90W. Patchy fog is expected in parts of the NW Gulf of Mexico, especially during the overnight and early morning hours, until at least Tuesday. A ridge, extending from the western Atlantic Ocean across the Gulf of Mexico, will change little through Friday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge and low pressure that is forming in Mexico, inland. This will lead to some increase in the wind speeds and the sea heights in the NW and the N central Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday night into Thursday. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and then weaken overnight, as the associated trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N56W. An upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, toward Martinique, toward the coast of Venezuela along 68W/69W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 21N61W. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 24N61W and to 28N60W. Another part of the trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 17N60W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 22N61W. A surface trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 25N61W and to 29N58W. Another part of the trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 18N62W and 15N66W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 72W eastward. Rainshowers are possible, also, elsewhere from 72W westward. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the next several days. Strong to minimal gale-force winds are expected each night near the coast of Colombia through the period. Strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage and to the south of Hispaniola each night and into the mornings through Friday. Expect also increasing winds in the lee of Cuba from Wednesday night into Thursday; and to the east of the Leeward Islands from Thursday night through Friday night, as high pressure strengthens to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N56W. An upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, toward Martinique, toward the coast of Venezuela along 68W/69W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 21N61W. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 24N61W and to 28N60W. Another part of the trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 17N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 19N to 30N between 50W and 60W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.02 in Bermuda. The pressure gradient between a western Atlantic Ocean ridge and the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 21N61W, supports moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the eastern part of the area south of 27N. The 1015 mb low pressure center is forecast to move to 20N62W this morning, and open up into a trough near the Leeward Islands by tonight. A weak cold front will move across the northern waters today and tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Strengthening high pressure to the north of the area will result in increasing easterly winds and building seas, mainly across the waters S of 27N, from Wednesday night through Friday night. $$ MT