000 AXNT20 KNHC 160536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The forecast at 16/0000 UTC consists of : NE Gale-force winds have started to develop, from 10N to 12N between 73W and 77W, near the coast of Colombia. Expect also sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet. The wind speeds will slow down, to less than gale-force, in about 12 hours. Gale-force winds will develop, again, 24 hours from now. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/ previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area: AGADIR, starting at 16/1200 UTC and ending at 17/0000 UTC. Please read the Meteo-France forecast, listed under the WMO header WONT50 LFPW, or at http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING. 1920.061920095563.txt. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N20W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N southward between 39W and 45W, and within 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 19W and 22W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb Gulf of Mexico high pressure center that is near 29N87W, into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to Mexico near 21N97W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge is along 90W. Patchy fog is expected in parts of the NW Gulf of Mexico through at least Tuesday. A weak ridge, extending from the western Atlantic Ocean across the northern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds in much of the Gulf through the middle of the week. Expect strengthening SE return flow by late this week, in advance of a cold front that will approach the Texas coast and move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 21N58W. An upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the Caribbean Sea near 16N62W, and toward the coast of Venezuela along 66W/67W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 22N61W. A surface trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 25N61W and to 29N58W. Another part of the trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 18N62W and 15N66W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 72W eastward. Rainshowers are possible also from 14N northward from 70W westward. Strong NE to E winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea this week. Near gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia are expected to pulse to minimal gale-force each night. Strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage, and to the south of Hispaniola during the overnight and early morning hours this week. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase to the east of the Leeward Islands, from Thursday night through Friday night, as strong high pressure builds to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 21N58W. An upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the Caribbean Sea near 16N62W, and toward the coast of Venezuela along 66W/67W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 22N61W. A surface trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 25N61W and to 29N58W. Another part of the trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 18N62W and 15N66W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 30N between 50W and 60W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.02 in Bermuda. The current 1014 mb low pressure center will move SW through Monday. Expect fresh winds and increased sea heights to the waters that are to the west of the low pressure center and to the east of 70W. The low pressure center will open up into a surface trough, on Monday night near the Leeward Islands, as associated conditions diminish gradually. A weak cold front will move across the northern waters to the east of 75W, from tonight through Tuesday, followed by fresh winds and increased seas. Strong high pressure will build to the north of the area through the middle of the week, following the front. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas south of 27N, from Wednesday night through Friday night. $$ mt