000 AXNT20 KNHC 151718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 118 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Winds to minimal gale force were occurring earlier this morning at 1200 UTC near the coast of Colombia. Winds will be below gale force during the daytime hours. However, winds are expected to pulse to minimal gale force for the next few nights near the coast of Colombia. Sea heights are forecast to be 8-10 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 300 nm of the coast of Brazil from 02S-03N, west of 41.5W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high east of northern Florida extends surface ridging over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails over the basin, leading to subsidence, especially over the southern two-thirds of the Gulf. Some mid and high clouds are seen over the NW and north-central Gulf. Patchy fog is near the coasts of Mississippi, Louisiana and upper Texas. High pressure ridging extending from the western Atlantic W to across the Gulf will change little through Fri. Winds and seas will increase some over the NW and N-central Gulf beginning Tue night and lasting through Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. Patchy fog is expected over portions of the NW Gulf, especially during the overnight and early morning hours into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the central and western Caribbean west of 70W, leading to mainly dry air and fair weather. Isolated to scattered showers are seen near Trinidad, the southern Windward Islands and far SE Caribbean. A 1014 mb surface low is located near 22N61W, about 275 nm NNE of the northernmost Leeward Islands. A trough from the low extends some clouds and isolated showers over portions of the Leeward Islands. Drier air is building in north of this trough over the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands. As of the low near 22N61W moves SW, it will continue to weaken. It should be a weak trough or dissipated by the time it approaches the Virgin or northern Leeward Islands early in the week. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, are expected each night near the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola each night through the middle of week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb surface low is located near 22N61W, about 275 nm NNE of the northernmost Leeward Islands. A surface trough extends from 19N61W to the low to 27N60W to 30N56W. Isolated moderate convection is within 360 nm eastern semicircle of the low. The latest ASCAT pass shows that the low contains winds of 20-25 kt near and E of the center. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are across the waters N of Puerto Rico to about 22N, including the Mona Passage. The low is expected to continue weakening as it moves SW. It will be a weak trough or dissipated by early this week as it approaches the Virgin or northern Leeward Islands. A 1025 mb high is east of Florida near 29N77W. A weak cold front, currently north of 31N, will move southward across the western Atlantic waters south of 30N this evening through Mon night. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure will build north of the area Wed night through Thu night, resulting in increasing winds and seas across the western and central Atlantic. In the far E Atlantic off the coast of Morocco, expect N to NE winds to increase to near gale force on Monday, with these winds continuing into some of Tuesday. Building seas are also expected between southern Morocco and the easternmost of the Canary Islands during that time. $$ Hagen