000 AXNT20 KNHC 150529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of SW Guinea near 09N13W, curving to 08N16W and to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W, to 02N34W, crossing the Equator along 39W, to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 01.5N to 03N between 04.5W and 06W, from 02.5N between 06W and 08W, from 03N northward between 08W and 11W, and from 02N to 03N between 11W and 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb NE Gulf of Mexico high pressure center that is near 30N86W, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, and then southwestward to Mexico near 19N97W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge is along 85W/87W. High pressure, extending from the western Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain generally moderate-to- occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the region through the middle of next week. Fresh-to-locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. Patchy fog is expected in parts of the NW Gulf of Mexico, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N61W. An upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the Caribbean Sea near 15N65W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean, in the area that is bounded by the points from 11N62W to 20N53W to 20N66W, and elsewhere from 20N southward between 60W and 66W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 24N60W. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 26N59W and to 27N57W. Another part of the trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 21N60W and 17N61W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 72W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.36 in Guadeloupe. The gradient from high pressure north of the area will support strong NE winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to near gale force each night near the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola each night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N61W. An upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the Caribbean Sea near 15N65W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean, in the area that is bounded by the points from 11N62W to 20N53W to 20N66W, and elsewhere from 20N southward between 60W and 66W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 24N60W. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 26N59W and to 27N57W. Another part of the trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 21N60W and 17N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 260 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just to the north of the Canary Islands. The current low pressure center and trough will weaken gradually. The low pressure center will move southwestward, to 20N64W by Monday. Expect increasing wind speeds and sea heights to the waters to the east of 70W. A weak cold front will sag southward into the far northern waters tonight, and move across the NE part of the area from Sunday through Monday night. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas following the front through early next week. Strong high pressure will build north of the area, from Wednesday night through Thursday, resulting in increasing winds and seas across the region. $$ MT