000 AXNT20 KNHC 142356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The Meteo-France outlook from 16/0000 UTC to 17/0000 UTC calls for near gale winds over zones Agadir and Tarfaya, off the coast of Morocco. Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-08N between 00W-06W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 14W-19W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N77W. A ridge axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas. 5-15 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with weakest winds over the NE Gulf and strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Fog is being reported over the NW Gulf with visibility mostly 3-5 miles in the offshore areas of Texas and Louisiana. Denser fog is over the coastal areas. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Gulf along 86W. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf S of 26N. High pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain generally moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the region Sunday through Wednesday. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. Patchy dense fog is expected over portions of the northern Gulf for the next several days, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-22 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Windward Islands. Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, central Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, E Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E Caribbean with its axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. The surface pressure gradient over the Caribbean will support strong NE winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days, with gales possible Mon night near the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will pulse each night through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A near gale warning is out for the coast of Morocco. See above. A 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N77W. Another 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N67W. A 1015 mb low is over the central Atlantic N of the Leeward Islands near 24N59W. A surface trough extends from 26N58W to the low to 19N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-27N between 56W-61W. A 1029 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 38N34W. An upper level low is also centered near 24N60W enhancing convection. Another upper level low is off the coast of Morocco near 35N12W producing scattered showers as far S as the Canary Islands. The surface low and trough N of the Leeward Islands will gradually weaken while moving SW to near 20N63W by Mon, bringing increasing winds and seas to the waters east of 70W. A high pressure ridge over the W Atlantic will weaken tonight as a cold front sags southward into the W Atlantic Sun through Mon. The surface pressure gradient will support fresh winds east of the Bahamas through the middle of next week. $$ Formosa