000 AXNT20 KNHC 141637 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 02N32W to 01S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-04N between 12W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-02N between 40W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from NE Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1025 mb high east of Tallahassee near 31N84W. Mid- to upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails over the basin, leading to subsidence and fair weather. The exception is in the far NW Gulf close to the Texas coast, where scattered to broken mid and upper level clouds are streaming from SW to NE. Some patchy areas of dense fog are noted in a few spots near the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. High pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the region will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf through the period. Southeast winds will increase to fresh speeds over the NW Gulf Wed night. Patchy dense fog is expected in some locations of the NW and N-central Gulf at night and in the mornings through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the western half of the Caribbean Sea, leading to dry air and subsidence west of 70W. An upper-level trough axis extends from an upper-level low near 25N61W to the Virgin Islands to 15N69W. Little to no significant shower activity is noted over the eastern Caribbean, as the atmosphere is still fairly dry there. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh trades across the western and central Caribbean, with strong NE winds near the coast of N Colombia. Gentle trades are east of 70W. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend in the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands due to a sharp trough that is currently over the Atlantic from 19N62W to 25N58W. Significant shower activity is currently outside of the Caribbean basin, north of 19N and east of 61.5W. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast winds near the coast of Colombia the next several days. Winds across the central Caribbean will increase tonight, then remain fresh to occasionally strong through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp surface trough is located well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands from 25N58W to 19N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-28N between 54W-61W. An upper- level low near 25N61W is helping to enhance convection. East winds of 30 kt are from 25N-26N between 57W-59W. Strong E winds are elsewhere from 24N-28N between 56W-60W. A broad surface low is likely to form along the trough later today near 24N60W. Winds with this system are expected to remain near gale force through Sunday morning before it begins to weaken. As the low weakens, it will move SW towards the NE Caribbean early next week with limited shower activity. A surface ridge extends roughly along 30N from the central Atlantic to northern Florida, anchored by a 1025 mb high near 30N74W. The ridge will weaken tonight as a cold front sags southward, south of 30N between 60W-81W, Sun and Sun night. The front will then continue southward to the waters east of the Bahamas Mon through Tue night while weakening. Increasing winds and building seas are expected over these waters. In the far E Atlantic, off the coast of Morocco, N to NE winds are expected to increase to near gale by Monday morning with gales possible by Monday afternoon, as strong high pressure builds east of the Azores. $$ Hagen