000
AXNT20 KNHC 141047
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N15W, and to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N18W, to 02N30W, and to 01N39W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the NE coast of Florida, into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and then southwestward to the coast
of Mexico near 21N97W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. 

Areas of dense fog will affect the coastal waters between 
Pensacola Florida and Galveston Texas this morning. A weak ridge 
across the region will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
in the Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 30N60W in the Atlantic 
Ocean, to 25N62W, to 19N63W, 16N65W, and to 15N71W.  
Precipitation: A surface trough is along 25N57W in the Atlantic 
Ocean, to 21N61W, continuing to the island of Antigua. 
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 19N southward 
between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is 
apparent in water vapor imagery in the entire Caribbean Sea.

Persistent high pressure, to the north of the area, will support
fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia during the 
next several days. The wind speeds in the central Caribbean Sea
will increase tonight, and then remain fresh-to-occasionally 
strong through Tuesday. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 30N60W in the Atlantic 
Ocean, to 25N62W, to 19N63W, 16N65W, and to 15N71W. Precipitation:
A surface trough is along 25N57W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 21N61W,
continuing to the island of Antigua. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 19N64W to 22N60W to 25N57W to
30N56W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean N 
of 20N E of 35W. An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the
southern side of the Canary Islands.

A surface ridge, extending roughly along 30N from the central 
Atlantic Ocean to N Florida, will weaken tonight, as a cold front
sags southward in the northern oceanic waters from Sunday through
Monday. High pressure, building into the W Atlantic Ocean in the 
wake of the front, will build seas to the east of the Bahamas on 
Monday and Tuesday.

$$
MT