159 
AXNT20 KNHC 140519
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through southern sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to
01N39W, crossing the Equator along 41W, to 02S44W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 100 nm to the south of the
ITCZ between 22W and 25W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 360 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is in the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to 
the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. 

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. 

A weak surface ridge across the region will maintain
quiescent conditions in the Gulf of Mexico during the
forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 22N64W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 19N64W, across Puerto Rico, to 16N68W, and to 14N72W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the NE Caribbean Sea
islands southward from 70W eastward. The southernmost part of a 
surface trough, that starts in the Atlantic Ocean near 25N58W, and
that continues to 22N62W, is near the island of Saint Martin. 
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 20N between 
61W and 68W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in 
water vapor imagery in the entire Caribbean Sea.

The Bermuda High pressure center, that is to the north of the 
area, will support pulsing fresh-to-strong NE winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea for the next several days. The wind speeds 
in the central Caribbean Sea will increase on Saturday night. They
will remain fresh-to-occasionally strong through Tuesday. No 
significant long-period swell is anticipated to impact the 
tropical N Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 25N58W 22N62W, continuing to the 
island of Saint Martin. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible 
from 17N to 20N between 61W and 68W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 20N64W to 23N59W to 27N57W to 30N55W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean N 
of 20N E of 35W. An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the
southern side of the Canary Islands.

A surface ridge, extending from the Bermuda High roughly
along 30N from the central Atlantic Ocean to N Florida, will 
weaken on Saturday night, as a cold front sags southward in the
northern oceanic waters from Sunday through Monday. High pressure,
building into the W Atlantic Ocean in the wake of the front, will
build seas to the east of the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday.

$$
MT