000 AXNT20 KNHC 132308 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 708 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 01N38W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. A N-S surface trough is along 39W from 05N-01S. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-04N between 11W-14W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb surface high is centered near the Florida Big Bend at 29N83W. 5-15 anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds over the high and strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. Isolated showers are over the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Gulf along 90W. Scattered high clouds are over the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf. Weak surface ridging across the Gulf will maintain quiescent conditions across the Gulf through at least Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, central Hispaniola, Jamaica, W Honduras, S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central Caribbean with its axis along 70W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. The Bermuda High north of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds across the central Caribbean will increase Sat night, then remain fresh to occasionally strong through Tue. No significant long-period swell is anticipated to impact the tropical N Atlantic waters for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is N of the Leeward Islands from 24N61W to 18N62W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 21N-28N between 55W-64W. This convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough along 64W. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N52W. Another 1031 mb high is centered N of the Azores near 40N26W. A ridge extending from the central Atlantic high to N Florida will weaken Sat night as a cold front sags southward over the W Atlantic waters Sun through Mon. High pressure building into the W Atlantic in the wake of the front will build seas east of the Bahamas Mon and Tue. $$ Formosa