000 AXNT20 KNHC 131705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 03N36W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. A N-S surface trough is along 38W from 00N-04N. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm N and 180 nm S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 13W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 06S-02N between 30W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb surface high is centered near the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W. Upper-level ridging covers the Gulf of Mexico. Mid and high level clouds are streaming across Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog is noted close to the coast of southeast Louisiana. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh SE winds covering the southwest Gulf of Mexico, decreasing to gentle near the high in the NE Gulf. The weak ridge across the region will maintain quiescent conditions across the Gulf through at least Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough axis extends from Bermuda to the Mona Passage and into the north-central Caribbean. Isolated showers are possible from Puerto Rico to the eastern Dominican Republic. Most of the basin is experiencing rather quiescent weather. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades across the basin. Winds across the central Caribbean will increase Sat night, then remain fresh to occasionally strong through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 25N60W to 20N64W. This is located just east of an upper level trough axis, that is along 66W from Bermuda to the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-29N between 57W-63W. The surface trough is expected to sharpen and possibly become a surface low this weekend in the vicinity of 25N60W, with strong E winds developing in the northern semicircle of this system. A surface ridge extending from the Bermuda High roughly along 30N from the central Atlantic to N Florida will weaken Sat night as a cold front sags southward over waters east of northern Florida Sun through Mon. High pressure building into the W Atlantic in the wake of the front will increase seas east of the Bahamas Mon and Tue, as the low near 25N60W weakens and dissipates. $$ Hagen