000 AXNT20 KNHC 122347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N28W. A surface trough extends from 06N30W to 02N31W. The ITCZ resumes near 01N36W to 01S44W. Scattered showers are noted along and in the vicinity of the surface trough and ITCZ mainly between 23W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the Florida Peninsula near 29N82W. With this, surface ridging extends across the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevailing across the basin, with moderate easterly winds noted over the Straits of Florida. The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters and generally maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the basin through the weekend. Diurnally driven NE winds of 20 kt will occur during the evenings hours within about 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail across the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters related to a surface trough extending north of the island. Strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. A high pressure ridge N of the area will support fresh to locally strong winds to pulse over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will strengthen early next week as a stronger high pressure ridge builds E over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 27N70W to 20N71W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough from 20N-27N between 60W- 70W. This activity is enhanced by an upper level trough. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in scatterometer data mainly north of 20N and west of 40W. To the east, a 1019 mb surface low is centered near 27N40W, with stationary front extending from the low to 31N37W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. A surface ridge from the central Atlantic dominates the region and will shift E ahead of a cold front that will sag S over the northern waters Fri night and Sat. High pressure building E over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will cause winds and seas to build E of the Bahamas on Mon. $$ ERA