594 AXNT20 KNHC 121732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N30W to Brazil near 03S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 08W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-07S between 24W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. 5-15 anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds over the high and strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. Isolated showers are over the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over Mexico and Texas along 100W. NW upper level flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence. Areas of dense fog will affect waters within 30 nm of the coast between Pensacola Florida and Morgan City Louisiana until mid afternoon today. Areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast will linger longer over the waters between Morgan City Louisiana and Galveston Texas until around dawn Fri. Otherwise, a weak high pressure ridge N of the Gulf will generally maintain light to moderate E to SE winds over the basin through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 23N72W to 14N73W. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, E Hispaniola, the Gulf of Honduras, E Honduras, E Nicaragua, and E Costa Rica. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central Caribbean with its axis between 75W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. A high pressure ridge N of the area will support fresh to locally strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will strengthen early next week as a stronger high pressure ridge builds E over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is E of the Bahamas from 21N-26N between 62W-71W mainly due to an upper level trough. A 1032 mb high pressure area is over the central Atlantic near 36N47W. A 1019 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 27N39W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 24N40W. A shearline continues to 22N45W to 23N54W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the shearline. A stationary front extends from 31N35W to the surface low. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this front. High pressure ridging from the central Atlantic to the Florida coast will shift E ahead of a cold front that will sag S over the western Atlantic Fri night and Sat. High pressure building E over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will cause winds and seas to build E of the Bahamas Mon and Mon night. $$ Formosa