236 AXNT20 KNHC 120556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 12N16W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 00N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06S-04N between 16W and 32W, and more scattered showers along the ITCZ west of 32W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the Gulf maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin, along with mainly seas of 2-4 ft. In the upper levels, a ridge is over Mexico and Texas producing NW upper level flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Fri, with gentle return flow Thursday becoming moderate to fresh across the basin Fri. A cold front will briefly drop into the northern Gulf late Fri before it stalls and retreats northward into the weekend. Diurnally driven NE winds of 20 kt will occur during the evenings hours within about 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are noted across the basin, except fresh to strong in the S-central Caribbean. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft, except 8-9 ft in the S-central Caribbean. Scattered showers were noted over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba, as well as offshore and over interior Nicaragua and Honduras. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central Caribbean with its axis between 75W-77W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Strong subsidence is limiting convection mainly south of 15N between 64W-80W. A weakening ridge across the Atlantic will produce fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through tonight before diminishing Thu and Fri. Winds will strengthen once again during the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 mb high pressure area is over the central Atlantic near 34N48W. A weakening stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N33W and extends SW through 21N47W. A shear line continues WSW to just N of Puerto Rico near 19N66W. A ridge extends from the high WSW to near northern Florida, with a weak surface trough analyzed from 25N67W to 19N72W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from Hispaniola to the Bahamas and north to 26N between 65W-73W. Fresh to strong winds were noted by scatterometer data from 22N-27N to the E of the Bahamas, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 8-10 ft E of the Bahamas, and 2-4 ft W of the Bahamas. E of the offshore waters zones, fresh to strong winds were noted N of the shear line, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of the shear line. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and shear line. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Canary Islands producing scattered showers. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will weaken slightly and drift N to along 30N by Fri, then strengthen modestly over the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the waters S of 27N through tonight. High seas in large N to NE swell across the waters E of the Bahamas are expected to gradually subside to 8 ft or less through late Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters from Friday night into Saturday before it weakens and dissipates through Saturday night. $$ MMTorres