000 AXNT20 KNHC 110606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea into the Atlantic near 09N13W to 00N25W. ITCZ continues from 00N25W to 03N30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 14W and 20W, from 05N to 01N between 19W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated ridge extends from across northern Florida across the northern Gulf to the upper Texas coast. A weak trough was analyzed in the SW Gulf from 21N95W to 19N94W. No significant convection is noted with this trough. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft were noted through the Straits of FL, with moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate over the central and western Gulf. An atmospheric river of mid-to-upper level moisture extends from the E Pacific Ocean across S Texas and NE Mexico to across the west and central Gulf. This is enhancing scattered showers from 23N-27N and west of 89W. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to strong winds currently over the SE waters will diminish tonight, with return flow dominating across the basin through Fri. A cold front will briefly drop into the northern Gulf late Fri before it stalls and retreats northward into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient is noted across the basin with strong high pressure NE of the area, and 1004 mb low pressure analyzed over northern Colombia. Strong trades prevail in the S-central Caribbean along with seas of 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades were noticed elsewhere along with seas of 5-8 ft, except fresh to strong NE winds S of Cuba. A weak perturbation is noted in the western Caribbean supporting scattered showers isolated tstorms offshore of and inland across Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will blow across the south-central Caribbean through Wed night, and then again during the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds are expected Thu and Fri as a weaker pressure pattern prevails across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1034 mb high centered ENE of Bermuda near 33N56W extends ridging W-SW to SE Georgia and across northern Florida. A stationary front is analyzed ESE of the high extending from 31N35W through 23N44W where it continues as dissipating to 20N50W, then continues as a shear line to NE of the Virgin Islands near 19N64W. Isolated to scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. A surface trough is analyzed from 24N67W to 19N66W in the N coast of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across a wide area east of the trough from 21N-30N between 58W-67W, enhanced and supported by a sharp middle-to-upper level trough axis extending from 35N60W to just E of the Turks and Caicos. In the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N21W is producing showers near the Canary Islands. A moderate to strong pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds mainly across the waters S of 27N through Wed night. High seas in large NE swell, currently affecting the waters E of the Bahamas, are expected to gradually subside to 8 ft or less through late Thu. High pressure is forecast to dominate the SW N Atlantic through Friday, before retreating eastward. It is possible that a cold front may drop SE into the NW waters, from Friday night into Saturday, before it weakens and dissipates through Saturday night. $$ MMTorres