000 AXNT20 KNHC 102240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea to the Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to the equator near 34W and reaching the coast of Brazil near 49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 12W and 19W, from 02N to 04N between 23W and 25W, and also from the equator to 02N between 40W and 42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 02N between 43W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated ridge of high pressure extends from across northern Florida to across the northern Gulf to the upper Texas coast. A weak trough was analyzed in the SW Gulf from 22N94W to 18N94W. No significant convection is noted with this trough. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft were noted through the Straits of Florida, with moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate over the central and western Gulf. An atmospheric river of mid-to-upper level moisture extends from the E Pacific Ocean across S Texas and NE Mexico to across the western Gulf. This is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially from the southern portions of Texas and Louisiana. The fresh to strong winds will diminish tonight, with return flow dominating across the basin through Fri as the ridge remains in place. A cold front will drop into the northern Gulf of Mexico briefly on Fri before it stalls and retreats northward into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient is noted across the basin with strong high pressure NE of the area, and 1006 mb low pressure analyzed over northern Colombia. Strong trades prevail in the S-central Caribbean along with seas of 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades were noticed here elsewhere along with seas of 5-8 ft, except fresh to strong NE winds across the approach to the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola. A weak perturbation is noted in the western Caribbean supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore of and inland across Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Strong winds will prevail across the S-central Caribbean Sea through the middle of the week. The wind speeds will diminish slightly as a weaker pressure pattern prevails through Fri. The wind speeds will start to strengthen again in the S-central Caribbean Sea on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1034 mb high centered ENE of Bermuda near 33N60W extends ridging W-SW to SE Georgia and across northern Florida. A cold front is analyzed ESE of the high extending from 1020 mb low pressure near 33N34W through 30N36W to 24N43W where it continues as dissipating to 20N55W then continues as a shear line to NE of the Virgin Islands. Isolated to scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. A surface trough is analyzed from 25N64W to the N coast of Puerto Rico near 18N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across a wide area on either side of this trough, enhanced and supported by a sharp middle-to-upper level trough axis extending from 35N60W to just E of the Turks and Caicos. In the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N21W is producing showers near the Canary Islands. Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will prevail, before the conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. High pressure will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Fri, before retreating eastward. It is possible that a cold front may drop SE into the NW waters, from Fri night into Sat, before it weakens and dissipates through Sat night. $$ Lewitsky