000 AXNT20 KNHC 101727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01S29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present along and south of the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 06W-22W, from 01S-01N between 22W-34W, and from 03S-02N west of 32W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1036 mb high over the west Atlantic near 33N61W provides extended ridging over much of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level ridge also prevails over most of the Gulf. An atmospheric river of mid- to upper- level moisture extends from the east Pacific Ocean across South Texas to an upper-level low approaching the Great Lakes region. This is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms associated with this plume of moisture, especially from the Southern portions of Texas and into Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 22N93W to 15N92W. No significant convection is observed with this trough. Strong E winds are over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. Moderate SE winds are over the W Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Friday. Fresh to strong winds, currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will diminish early today. Return flow will dominate across the basin through Friday. A cold front will drop into the northern Gulf of Mexico, on Friday, briefly, before it stalls and retreats northward into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong pressure gradient continues as 1036 mb high pressure prevails across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure is creating near gale force winds near the coast N of Columbia. Fresh to strong winds are from 15N-17N between 68W-73W, and moderate to fresh over the NW Caribbean. A shear line north of Puerto Rico and the USVI is enhancing an area of scattered showers and tstorms from Hispaniola to Puerto Rico and the USVI from 20N-28N between 62W-70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong winds will prevail across the south central Caribbean Sea through the middle of the week. The wind speeds will diminish slightly as a weaker pressure pattern prevails through Friday. The wind speeds will start to strengthen again in the south central Caribbean Sea on Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1036 mb high centered near 33N61W extends ridging over the W Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 30N38W to 21N55W, then a shearline extends from 20N55W to 19N61W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along the front and shearline. Near gale force winds are to the N of the front from 20N-30N and W of 45W. An upper-level trough is from 24N74W to E Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen east of the upper- trough axis, from 18N-27N between 66W-75W. In the NE Atlantic, an upper- level low near 24N23W is producing showers near the Canary Islands. Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will prevail, before the conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. High pressure will prevail through Friday, before retreating eastward. It is possible that a cold front may drop SE into the NW waters, from Friday night into Saturday, before it weakens and dissipates through Saturday night. $$ ZACHRY