000 AXNT20 KNHC 101042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A 1037 mb high pressure west of Bermuda is creating NE gale force winds near the coast N of Colombia. Near gale to gale force winds will continue in these areas through mid day Tuesday. Seas will range from 10 to 15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01S29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present along and south of the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 07W-22W, from 01S-01N between 22W-34W, and from 03S-02N west of 34W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1036 mb high over the west Atlantic near 32N66W extends ridging over much of the Gulf. Upper-level ridge also currently prevails over most of the Gulf of Mexico. An atmospheric river of mid-upper level moisture extends from the east Pacific Ocean across Texas to an upper-level low approaching the Great Lakes region. This is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms associated with this plume of moisture, especially from South Central Texas to Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 22N90W to 18N91W. No significant convection is observed with this trough. Strong E winds are over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. Moderate SE winds are over the W Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish early today, with return flow dominating across the basin through Fri. A cold front will briefly drop into the northern Gulf Fri before it stalls and retreats northward into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong pressure gradient continues as strong 1036 mb high pressure prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Gale warning remains in effect for the Caribbean, please see special features above for more details. Latest ASCAT data indicates south of Hispaniola fresh to strong winds from 15N-17N between 68W-73W, and moderate to fresh over the NW Caribbean. A shear line north of Puerto Rico and the USVI is enhancing an area of scattered showers and tstorms from Hispaniola to Puerto Rico and the USVI. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Winds will diminish slightly as a weaker pressure pattern prevails through Fri. Winds will start to strengthen again in the south- central Caribbean Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1036 mb high centered near 32N66W extends ridging over the W Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N39W to 22N49W to 20N58W, then a shearline extends from 20N58W to 18N68W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along the front and shearline. Near gale force winds are to the north of the front from 20N-27N and west of 45W. An upper-level trough is from 24N74W to E Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen east of the upper- trough axis, from 18N-27N between 66W-75W. In the NE Atlantic, an upper-level low near 24N23W is producing showers near the Canary Islands. Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will prevail before conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. High pressure will prevail through Fri before retreating eastward. A cold front may drop SE into the NW waters Fri night into Sat before it weakens and dissipates through Sat night. Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will prevail before conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. High pressure will prevail through Fri before retreating eastward. A cold front may drop SE into the NW waters Fri night into Sat before it weakens and dissipates through Sat night. $$ MMTorres