000 AXNT20 KNHC 100601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A 1037 mb high west of Bermuda is creating gale force winds near the coast of N Colombia and near the approach to the Windward Passage. Near gale to gale force winds will continue in these areas through Tuesday morning. The Mona Passage and area south of the Dominican Republic will see near gales during this time. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01N-07N between 10W- 21W, from 02S-03N between 21W-38W, and near the coast of Brazil near 02S-02N west of 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1037 mb high over the west Atlantic near 33N64W extends ridging over much of the Gulf. Upper-level ridging also currently prevails over most of the Gulf of Mexico. An atmospheric river of mid-upper level moisture extends from the east Pacific Ocean across Texas to an upper-level low approaching the Great Lakes region. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms associated with this plume of moisture prevail over the northern Gulf from 26N-29N between 90W-97W. Strong E winds are over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. Moderate SE winds are over the W Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish tonight into early Tue, with return flow dominating across the basin under the ridging through Fri. A cold front will drop into the northern Gulf Fri, stalling out and then retreating northward into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic stationary front extends from 20N57W through PR to 17N69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms extend across the Windward Passage and western Puerto Rico, covering portions of the northern Caribbean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong winds cover much of the basin, with near gale to gale force winds in the Windward Passage, near the coast of Colombia, and south of the Dominican Republic. The stationary front will move back NW as a warm front Tue. Strong to near gale force winds, except minimal gale force near the approach to the Windward Passage, and large seas will linger through late tonight before conditions start to improve. Strong winds will prevail across the S-central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight into early Tue. A weaker pressure pattern will prevail for the remainder of the week, strengthening again in the S-central Caribbean Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1037 mb high centered near 33N65W extends ridging over the W Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N40W to 22N49W to 20N57W, then stalls to near the USVI to 18N65W. Isolated showers are near the front. Near gale force winds are within 180 nm NW of the front, from 20N-27N and west of 45W. Altimeter passes from earlier today showed seas of 12-15 ft from 20N-28N between 58W-63W. An upper-level trough is from 24N74W to E Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen east of the upper-trough axis, from 18N-27N between 66W-75W. In the NE Atlantic, an upper-level low near 24N23W is producing showers near the Canary Islands. A stationary front will move back NW as a warm front Tue. Strong winds and high seas in large NW to N swell behind the front across the basin will prevail through Tue before conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail Thu, with gentle to moderate winds Fri as the ridge retreats. A cold front may drop SE into the NW waters Fri night into Sat, weakening and dissipating through Sat night. $$ MMTorres