000 AXNT20 KNHC 092328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 728 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A 1037 mb high west of Bermuda is creating gale force winds near the coast of N Colombia and near the approach to the Windward Passage. Near gale to gale force winds will continue in these areas through 1200 UTC Tuesday morning. The Mona Passage and area south of the Dominican Republic will see near gales during this time. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N49W to 20N60W. The ASCAT pass from early Monday morning around 1204 UTC showed gale force winds within 180 nm NW of the front between 25N-30N. Expect near gale to minimal gale force winds behind the front through Tuesday morning. Seas in the 12-16 ft range will continue over the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 02N25W to 00N33W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is inside the area enclosed by the points 04N04W to 01S21W to 04S40W to 02N48W to 11N14W to 04N04W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1037 mb high over the west Atlantic near 32N71W extends ridging over much of the Gulf. Upper-level ridging also currently prevails over most of the Gulf of Mexico. An atmospheric river of mid-upper level moisture extends from the east Pacific Ocean across Texas to an upper-level low approaching the Great Lakes region. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms associated with this plume of moisture prevail over portions of western Louisiana, east Texas, south Texas and the far NW Gulf of Mexico off the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. Isolated showers are possible over the remainder of the Gulf. Strong E winds are over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. Moderate SE winds are over the W Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish tonight into early Tue, with return flow dominating across the basin under the the ridging through Fri. A cold front will drop into the N Gulf Fri, stall out and then retreat northward into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic stationary front extends from 19N62W through the Virgin Islands to 17N69W, dissipating to 17N75W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms extend from near the Windward Passage to near Puerto Rico, covering portions of the northern Caribbean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong winds cover much of the basin, with near gale to gale force winds in the Windward Passage, near the coast of Colombia, and south of the Dominican Republic. The weakening stationary front extending across the Virgin Islands to along the S coast of Puerto Rico will move NW Tue before dissipating. Strong to near gale force winds, except minimal gale force near the approach to the Windward Passage, and large seas will linger through late tonight before conditions start to improve. Strong winds will prevail across the S-central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight into early Tue. Large N swell will continue to affect the NE Caribbean passages through Wed. A weaker pressure pattern will prevail for the remainder of the week, strengthening again in the S-central Caribbean Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1037 mb high centered near 32N71W extends ridging over the W Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N42W to 25N49W to 20N60W. Isolated showers are near the front. Gale force winds are within 180 nm NW of the front, from 25N-30N. NE winds of 25-30 kt cover a very large area extending from the Florida Straits and Greater Antilles, northward to 27N and eastward to the central Atlantic cold front. Altimeter passes from earlier today showed seas of 12-15 ft from 20N-28N between 58W-63W. An upper- level trough is from 30N75W to E Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen east of the upper-trough axis, from 18N-28N between 66W-75W. In the NE Atlantic, an upper-level low near 25N24W is producing showers from 22N-29N between 15W-24W. A cold front extending from 22N56W to the Virgin Islands will gradually stall tonight then shift NW Tue. Strong winds and high seas in large NW to N swell will prevail NW of the front through Tue before conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail Thu over the west Atlantic, with gentle to moderate winds Fri as the ridge retreats. A cold front may drop SE into the waters east of N Florida Fri night into Sat, weakening and dissipating through Sat night. $$ Hagen