000 AXNT20 KNHC 082223 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic near 19N69W to Jamaica near 18N76W, dissipating to 16N81W. Near gale to gale force NE winds are expected this evening beginning at 09/0000 UTC south of Cuba, from the Windward Passage southward to south of eastern Jamaica, and to the south of the Dominican Republic extending toward the Mona Passage. The gales will end by early Monday morning around 09/0900 UTC. Elsewhere in the northern Caribbean behind the cold front, strong to near gale force winds are expected through tonight. Seas of 9-12 ft are expected in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A gale is forecast for the waters off the coast of Colombia from 10N-13N between 74W-77W to begin this evening at 09/0000 UTC. Winds will pulse below gale force for Monday afternoon, then increase to gale force again for Monday night, then pulse below gale force late Tuesday morning. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N26W to Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is inside the area enclosed by the points 04N05W to 00N19W to 00N35W to 05N33W to 09N08W to 04N05W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1037 mb high centered over South Carolina near 34N79W extends surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Strong E winds are over the eastern Gulf, with winds to near gale force in the Florida Straits and SE Gulf. Seas in excess of 8 ft are over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and portions of the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are over the western Gulf of Mexico. Little to no significant shower activity is occurring over the Gulf of Mexico today. Strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward into the Atlantic through the forecast period and dominate conditions across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish late Mon. Return flow will then dominate the NW and N Gulf Tue through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic near 19N69W to Jamaica near 18N76W, dissipating to 16N81W. Scattered showers are near the front. Strong to near gale force NE winds cover the northwest and north-central Caribbean to the north of the front. The strongest winds are occurring south of Cuba, and from the Windward Passage to just SE of Jamaica. Near gale force winds are also seen off the coast of N Colombia. Winds in the aforementioned areas are expected to increase to gale force very soon, by 09/0000 UTC. The weakening cold front extending from southern Hispaniola across Jamaica to 16N81W will drift slightly southward and gradually dissipate through Mon. Strong winds and large seas will prevail behind the front across the Caribbean, with brief gales in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off the south coast of Hispaniola tonight. Strong winds will prevail across the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight and again Mon night. Large N swell over the Atlantic will reach areas from the Mona Passage to the northern Leeward Islands tonight. The large swell will then continue to affect the NE Caribbean passages through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1037 mb high centered near Myrtle Beach South Carolina extends surface ridging across the western Atlantic. An Atlantic cold front extends from 32N51W to 24N60W to the Dominican Republic near 19N69W. Isolated showers are near the front. N to NE winds of 25-30 kt cover nearly the entire western Atlantic behind the front inside the area enclosed by the points 32N51W to the Mona Passage to southern Belize to Tampa Bay to 32N72W to 32N51W. Seas of 12-17 ft cover the area from 23N-32N between 60W and the Bahamas, in large northerly swell. An upper-level trough extends cloudiness and isolated showers off the east coast of Florida through the central Bahamas. In the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 24N25W is producing scattered showers from 22N-29N between 19W- 26W. A surface ridge extends from the Azores to near 27N46W, with fair weather in between those points. The cold front extending from 20N65W to the eastern Dominican Republic to Jamaica will stall and weaken over eastern Puerto Rico Mon. Strong winds and large seas behind the front will prevail through Tue before conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. Large N swell will reach areas from the Mona Passage to the northern Leeward Islands tonight, then continue through mid-week. Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail Thu through Fri. $$ Hagen