974 AXNT20 KNHC 072350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... West Atlantic Gale Warning: A 969 mb hurricane force low near 40N62W extends gales as far south as 30N between 71W-76W, according to the ASCAT pass from late Saturday morning. The gales south of 31N are expected to end by 08/0000 UTC. Seas of 13-16 ft were observed in this area in recent altimeter passes. Northern Caribbean Gale Warning: A cold front extends over E Cuba from 21N75W to just S of the Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The front continues as stationary to 18N86W to central Honduras near 15N87W. As the front moves E over the Caribbean, brief gales will develop behind the front Sunday evening south of the Windward Passage and off the south coast of Hispaniola. Seas up to 9 to 13 ft are forecast for the area. South-central Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure moving off the Carolina coast late Sunday will create a strong pressure gradient across the Caribbean. Gales are expected off the N coast of Colombia Sunday night into early Monday morning, and again potentially on Monday night. Seas are forecast to build to 9-12 ft with these winds. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the special features mentioned above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 05N19W to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01.5S-03N between 23W-31W, and from 03S-02N between 39W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1036 mb high centered over Kentucky extends a surface ridge to east Texas and the northwest Gulf. However, abundant cloud cover is over much of the basin, with scattered light to moderate showers noted over portions of the western and central Gulf. The ASCAT pass from late Saturday morning showed strong NE winds across most of the eastern half of the Gulf, with moderate E winds over the western Gulf. High pressure over the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward into the Atlantic through the forecast period and dominate conditions across the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds currently over the eastern waters will diminish late Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gale Warnings in effect for the basin. A cold front extends over E Cuba from 21N75W to just S of the Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The front continues as stationary to 18N86W to central Honduras near 15N87W. Scattered showers are near the front. Strong N to NE winds cover the northwest Caribbean to the north of the front, west of 78W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are over much of the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Some clouds and isolated showers are seen over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as well as Hispaniola. The cold front from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will move SE this weekend before stalling from eastern Puerto Rico into the central Caribbean Mon. Strong winds and large seas will develop behind the front across the Caribbean, with brief gales south of the Windward Passage and off the south coast of Hispaniola Sun night. Otherwise, strong winds will prevail across the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force Sun night and Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N59W to 25N68W to eastern Cuba near 21N75W to 19N81W. The ASCAT pass from late Saturday morning showed 30 to 35 kt NW to N winds north of 30N between 70W-75W. Fresh to near gale winds were elsewhere behind the front, between the front and the east coast of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds were ahead of the front, north of 27N and west of 53W. Altimeter passes from Saturday at 1506 UTC and 1923 UTC both indicated seas of 12-16 ft from 27N-31N between 70W-75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the cold front. The cold front will move SE this weekend before stalling and weakening over eastern Puerto Rico and the waters N of Puerto Rico Sun night through Mon. Strong winds and large seas of 12-15 ft occurring behind the front will prevail over most of the western and central Atlantic through Tue before conditions start to improve the middle of next week. Farther E, A 1024 mb high is currently near 32N41W. Deep layered ridging extends from this area southwestward to near the northern Leeward Islands. An upper-level low in the vicinity of 23N-30N and 23W-32W is inducing cloudiness and showers in the area from 20N- 32N between the west coast of Africa and 30W. Strong NE winds are over portions of the area offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, as well as near the Canary Islands. $$ Hagen