000 AXNT20 KNHC 062235 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 535 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A cold front will move SE toward the Windward Passage this weekend, moving E of the approach by Sat evening. Strong to near gale force NE winds will follow the front, in the Lee of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and in the Lee of Hispaniola. These winds are forecast to increase to minimal gale force Sun night, diminishing back to strong to near gale force by early Mon. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft with these winds. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC or at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. West Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front was analyzed from near 32N70W to across the northern Bahamas to NW Cuba and the Straits of Florida near 23N81W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted N of 26N within 210 nm E of the front. Gale force winds in frequent gusts are forecast on either side of the front N of 27N, through early Sat. Elsewhere behind the front, strong winds through the forecast period. Seas will be 8-12 ft overnight, then will build to 10-15 ft by early Sat. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC or at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Earlier scatterometer data depicted gale force winds in the areas of Agadir, with similar winds forecast locally in Tarfaya and Canarias. Meteo-France has these conditions prevailing through early Sat. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast under the WMO header WONT50 LFPW or at http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/ METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1920.061920095563.txt for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border at 09N13W to 05N20W to 02N32W. The ITCZ continues from 02N32W to the equator at 34W, and continuing to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 12W and 17W, S of the monsoon trough to the equator between 19W and 26W, from 01N to 04N between 26W and 33W, and also from 02N to 04N between 35W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front was analyzed SE of the basin from the Straits of Florida into the NW Caribbean Sea to the S of the Yucatan Channel, with a reinforcing, but dissipating cold front analyzed from near 30N84W to 28N90W. Recent scatterometer imagery showed fresh to strong winds across much of the basin, except moderate to fresh in the NW and W-central Gulf. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft, except lower nearshore in the northern Gulf. High pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to support fresh to strong N to NE winds, mainly across the eastern half of the Gulf waters, through Sat evening, then NE to E winds Sat night through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gale Warning in effect in the Caribbean Sea. A cold front is analyzed from western Cuba near 22.5N82W to S of the Yucatan Channel, becoming stationary as it extends offshore of Belize to near the Nicaragua/Guatemala border at 16N88W. Fresh to strong winds are following the front through the Yucatan Channel, along with building seas approaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades were noted over the central Caribbean S of 18N, as well as in the eastern Caribbean, with light to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The cold front will reach from E Cuba to the central Gulf of Honduras Sat afternoon, from central Hispaniola to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border Sun morning, then stall from the Virgin Islands into central Caribbean Mon. Otherwise, strong winds in the S-central Caribbean are forecast to reach minimal gale force Sun night through early Mon, continuing to pulse at night through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gale Warning in effect in the SW N Atlantic Ocean. A reinforcing but dissipating cold front was analyzed from offshore of the Carolinas to near Jacksonville, Florida and beyond. Otherwise, 1022 mb high pressure analyzed near 27N55W extended a ridge W-SW toward the central Bahamas ahead of the dominant cold front. The front will move SE and reach from 29N65W to eastern Cuba Sat morning, from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat evening, then stall and weaken over the SE waters Sun night through Mon. E of the front, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades were noted S of 20N, with gentle to moderate winds N of 20N. To the SE of the high, a remnant trough was analyzed from 27N44W to 21N50W. This trough should dissipate as we enter the weekend with high pressure ridging building SW from NE of the area. $$ Lewitsky