000 AXNT20 KNHC 060552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong winds will continue across the south central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia early this morning. These winds are occurring due to a locally tight pressure gradient with high pressure ridging NE of the area, and low pressure over northern Colombia. Seas will build to 8-11 ft with these winds. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC or at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N17W to 01N25W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 01N25W to 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03S to 01S between 22W and 24W, and from 01N to 03N between 24N and 26N. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed at 00 UTC from a small low pressure near Jacksonville, Florida, to another small low pressure area near Apalachicola, Florida, then southward across the eastern Gulf to Merida Mexico on the northwest part of the Yucatan peninsula. A few showers were active over the northeast Gulf ahead of the front during the evening, but have since moved onshore. No other significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed across the Gulf. A reinforcing cold front over Texas is approaching the northwest Gulf this morning. The second front is noted over eastern Texas and central Louisiana, approaching the northwest Gulf. Seas are building behind the first front, with buy data showing generally 5 to 7 ft. Buoy and scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh northerly flow behind the first front. The first front will continue SE and reach from near Sarasota, Florida to the NE of the Yucatan peninsula later this morning, then exit the basin later today. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected through early Sat in association with the front, and the reinforcing front moving through the northern part of the basin. Strong NE to E winds will prevail through the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf through Mon night before conditions gradually improve basin wide. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gale Warning in effect in the S-central Caribbean Sea. A 1020 mb surface high pressure area was analyzed over central Cuba at 00 UTC. Farther south, a 1005 mb low pressure was anchored over north central Cuba. A pair of recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated a large area of strong trade winds between these pressure fields over the south central Caribbean, reaching near gale force off the higher terrain along the coast of northeast Colombia. Seas are generally 8 to 9 ft in the area of strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean, reaching as high as 11 ft off Colombia in the area of near gale force winds. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident on satellite imagery or regional radar, other than a few passing trade wind showers in the eastern Caribbean. The strong winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean into early next week, pulsing to gale off Colombia. A cold front across the Gulf of Mexico will enter the NW Caribbean this afternoon, reach from eastern Cuba to the central Gulf of Honduras Sat afternoon, from central Hispaniola to near the Honduras- Nicaragua border Sun morning, then stall from the Virgin Islands into central Caribbean Mon. Strong to near gale force NE winds and large seas will develop behind the front across the Caribbean and Atlc Passages through late Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is moving off the northeast coast of Florida currently. A line of thunderstorms is active well off the coast of northeast Florida, where the cold front has intersected with the Gulf Stream. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front. The axis of the subtropical ridge has shifted slightly southward to roughly 25N, through the central Bahamas, ahead of the advancing frontal boundary. The front will reach from 31N69W to western Cuba by this evening, from 25N65W to the Windward Passage Sat evening, then stall and weaken over near the Virgin Islands Sun night through Mon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected across the waters north of 29N ahead of the front through tonight night, with strong winds and large seas behind the front through Mon. Farther east, a mid to upper low is centered near 28N38W. This is supporting a nearly stationary surface low near 25N45W. A few showers and thunderstorms remain active within 90 nm of the surface low, supported by the cold-core low aloft. Earlier scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong winds north of the surface low, between it and high pressure to the northeast. A frontal boundary along 28N from roughly the Canary Islands to the surface low is dissipating. An earlier scatterometer pass showed winds parallel to the boundary, and the front is under southwesterly flow from the lower to upper levels of the atmosphere. The presence of the surface low has disrupted the subtropical ridge over the area, and is maintaining only moderate trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropical Atlantic west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The divergence aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough along with the trade wind convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere is supporting a couple of clusters of showers and thunderstorms near the ITCZ. Even though trade winds are suppressed, recent altimeter satellite data shows 8 to 11 ft seas, mainly north of 15N and east of 50W, likely due to northerly swell. The surface low is forecast to weaken through today as the upper support diminishes and lifts to the northeast. This will allow trade wind flow to increase slightly by Sat over the tropical Atlantic waters as the ridge builds to the north. $$ Christensen