000 AXNT20 KNHC 052306 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 606 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong winds will continue across the S-central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. These winds are occurring due to a locally tight pressure gradient with high pressure ridging NE of the area, and low pressure over northern Colombia. Seas will build to 8-11 ft with these winds. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC or at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border at 07N11W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 02N30W to near the equator at 45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the ITCZ between 23W and 32W, and also N of the ITCZ to 04N between 30W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure area was analyzed over the Florida Panhandle near 30.5N86W. A stationary front extends ENE of the low along the Florida/Georgia line, with a cold front extending S of the low across the central Gulf of Mexico through 26N88W, continuing through the Bay of Campeche to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. Very limited shower activity was noted in the vicinity of the front with no organized convection. A 1030 mb high pressure area was analyzed over northern Mexico at 28N102W, building eastward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front. The front will continue SE and reach from near Sarasota, Florida to the NE of the Yucatan peninsula later tonight, then exit the basin on Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected through early Sat in association with the front. Strong NE to E winds will prevail through the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf through Mon night before conditions gradually improve basin wide. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gale Warning in effect in the S-central Caribbean Sea. Late afternoon and early evening satellite imagery indicates fair weather across the basin with a ridge of high pressure analyzed from the central Atlantic Ocean to across the SE Bahamas toward the Yucatan Channel. Mainly moderate to fresh trades dominate the basin, outside of the S-central portion, along with seas of 4-7 ft. A cold front NW of the area in the central and SW Gulf of Mexico will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, reach from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Sat evening, then stall from the Virgin Islands into central Caribbean by Mon. Strong to near gale force NE winds and large seas will develop behind the front across the Caribbean and Atlc Passages as it shifts SE through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary was analyzed along 31N extending to a low pressure area W of the area over the Florida Panhandle, while a ridge axis extends from 1024 mb high pressure analyzed near 26N60W to across the Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity is noted along the front, mainly N of 31N, while fair weather was noted elsewhere W of 55W. Mainly moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the basin, along with seas of 3-6 ft. A cold front will move off northern Florida early Fri, then will reach from 31N66W to western Cuba Fri night, from 24N65W to Hispaniola Sat night, then stall and weaken over the SE waters Sun and Mon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected across the waters N of 29N ahead of the front Fri and Fri night, with strong winds and large seas behind the front Fri through Sat. E of 55W, a somewhat complex weather pattern exists N of 20N, with a pair of 1016 mb low pressure areas analyzed near 26.5N44W and 25.5N48W. A frontal boundary wraps into the eastern low extending from 29N35W to the low, then continuing S as a cold front to near 20N46W. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted mainly ESE of the front. These lows and the front are forecast to gradually weaken and wash out into the early part of the weekend with ridging building in from the NE. $$ Lewitsky