000 AXNT20 KNHC 042354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A gale is forecast to start along the coast of N Colombia on 05/0300 UTC from 11N-12.5N between 74W-75W. Seas are forecast to be 10-12 ft. The gale is forecast to end on 05/1800 UTC. The Gale is forecast to resume on 06/0300 UTC and end again on 06/1200 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N30W to Brazil near 03S40W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 06N-05S between 10W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 04/2100 UTC, a 1006 mb low is centered near Houston Texas at 29N95W. A cold front extends S from the low to 27N95W to near Tampico Mexico at 21N97W. Scattered showers are along the Texas coast. 20-25 kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder of the Gulf has 15-20 kt southerly return flow and fair weather. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 80W. Upper level high clouds are over the N Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf. The cold front will extend from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche tonight, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu evening, then exit the basin on Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in association with the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning has been issued for the coast of N Colombia. See above. A surface trough is over the E Caribbean Sea from 17N65W to 11N64W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. Scattered showers are also over the higher elevations of Hispaniola. Weakest tradewinds of 5-10 kt are along the coast of Costa Rica. A weakening Atlantic ridge extending from central Atlantic SW to central Bahamas will remain in place through Thu night before shifting eastward. Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, then reach from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Sat evening, then begin to stall from the Virgin Islands to central Caribbean Mon. Strong winds and large seas will prevail area wide behind the front Sat evening through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 25N47W. A cold front extends S from the low to 21N50W. A warm front extends NE from the low to 28N44W. A cold front extends from 31N29W to 28N44W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 22N-32N between 38W-47W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N46W enhancing convection. A weakening Atlantic ridge extending from central Atlantic SW to central Bahamas will remain in place through Thu night before shifting eastward. A cold front will move off northern Florida by early Fri, then reach from 31N68W to western Cuba by Fri evening, and from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat evening, then begin to stall from the Virgin Islands to central Caribbean Mon. Near gale force winds are expected across the waters N of 29N ahead of the front Fri and Fri night, with strong winds and building seas behind the front Fri and Sat. $$ Formosa