000 AXNT20 KNHC 041720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... The NE-to-E gale-force winds are off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet. The gale-force wind conditions will last until the afternoon today. The wind speeds will slow down, and be less than gale-force, tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W, to 04N15W and 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to 02N26W, 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 35W, and curving to 03S42W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 04N southward between 17W and 22W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 07N southward between 18W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Deep South of Texas, to a 1003 mb low pressure center that is near 24N97.5W along the coast of Mexico, to 19N95.5W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. An inland cold front is moving through south central Texas at this moment. A 1002 mb low pressure center is in Texas, about 375 nm to the north of the Mexico coast 1003 mb low pressure center. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the north of the line 28N82W 27N90W 21N97W, from Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico. Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico today, in advance of a cold front that is forecast to be moving into the NW Gulf by this afternoon. The front will move SE. The front will extend from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche tonight, and from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thursday evening. The cold front is forecast to exit the basin on Friday. Fresh to strong winds and building sea heights are expected in association with the cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... NE-to-E gale-force winds are present, off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. A surface trough is in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea, along 62W/63W, from 20N southward to Venezuela. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 55W and 70W, broken low level clouds. The GFS model shows anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea. An anticyclonic circulation center is in northern Colombia at 250 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is in the NW part of the Caribbean Sea, near 18N87W, just off the coasts the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, at 500 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is in the Bahamas near 25N76W at 700 mb. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe, 0.04 in Trinidad, and 0.02 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday night. The wind speeds will pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia, from tonight into early Thursday morning, and then from Thursday night into early Friday morning. A western Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken and shift eastward through Thursday night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Friday. The front will reach from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday evening, and gradually dissipate on Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N29W, to 30N32W, 28N40W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 26N49W. A surface trough extends from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 24N50W and 24N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the area that is from 23N northward between 34W and 41W. Rainshowers are possible, also, from 20N to 25N between 50W and 70W. This possible precipitation is related to a shear line that was present for the map analysis of 04/0600 UTC. A cold front will move off northern Florida by early Friday. The front will reach from 31N68W to western Cuba by Friday evening, and from 25N65W to Hispaniola on Saturday evening. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern waters ahead of the front on Friday and Friday night. Stronger winds and building seas will be behind the front on Friday and Saturday. $$ MT