000 AXNT20 KNHC 040551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gale conditions expected over the south-central Caribbean... Pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean will tighten tonight supporting gale force winds mainly south of 12N between 76W-78W. These conditions will continue through the morning hours, then pulsing once again on Wed night. Seas will range between 8 to 13 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 01N20W. The ITCZ extends from 01N20W to 01S33W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 05W-18W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 04S-01S between 20W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a high in the central Atlantic. Patchy fog is being reported across the northwestern and north-central Gulf, mainly N of 26N and W of 87W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict gentle to moderate southeasterly winds along covering the basin with fresh winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft across the whole area. Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf through Wed ahead of a cold front expected to come off the Texas coast by Wed afternoon. Dense fog is expected over the NW and NE Gulf coastal waters through Wed morning. The front will move SE and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon and exit the basin late Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front during the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. The tail end of a stationary front extends along 20N from 60W-74W which is enhancing convection across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters. A trough is east of the Lesser Antilles from 18N60W to 09N61W. Isolated showers are seen moving across these islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong easterly winds north of Colombia in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela, while moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere. Seas range from 5 to 8 ft, with 9 ft north of Colombia. A ridge over the western Atlantic extending SW to the NW Bahamas will remain in place through Wed night then weaken Thu and Thu night before shifting E. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean by Fri morning, reach from Haiti to Honduras by Sat evening before dissipating early on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Sat night, except pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1033 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N50W. A cold front is moving across the central Atlantic from 31N35W to 23N46W, then becomes stationary from that point to 20N74W. An area of numerous strong convection associated with a mid-level trough digging over the central Atlantic is noted behind the front from 25N-28N between 48W-53W. A larger area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 21N-32N between 41W-53W. To the east, surface ridging prevails and is anchored by a 1027 mb surface high centered near 34N18W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeasterly winds behind the cold front with seas up to 12 ft. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted in the western Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W. High pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic SW to the NW Bahamas will remain in place, and weaken modestly Wed night through Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Thu night, then reach from 25N65W to Hispaniola by Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas are expected across the waters N of 27N ahead of the front, and behind the front Thu evening through Sat night. $$ AReinhart