000 AXNT20 KNHC 032357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 657 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gale conditions expected over the south-central Caribbean... Pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean will tighten tonight supporting gale force winds mainly south of 12N between 76W-78W. These conditions will continue through the morning hours, then pulsing once again on Wed night. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 00W-25W. Similar convection is noted within 75 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a 1029 mb high centered in the western Atlantic near 35N53W. Patchy fog is being reported across the north western and north central Gulf, mainly N of 26N and W of 87W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict gentle to moderate southeasterly winds covering the basin with fresh winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft across the whole area. Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf through Wed ahead of a cold front expected to come off the Texas coast by Wed afternoon. Dense fog is expected to develop over the NW and NE Gulf coastal waters tonight through Wed morning. The front will move SE and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon and exit the basin late Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front during the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above foe details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. The tail end of a stationary front extends along 20N from 60W-72W enhancing convection across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds north of Colombia, while moderate trades are noted elsewhere with seas ranging from 5 to 8 ft. The ridge over the western Atlc extending SW to the NW Bahamas will shift eastward through Wed night. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean by Fri morning, reach from Haiti to Honduras by Sat evening before dissipating early on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Sat night, except pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 35N53W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W to 23N50W, then becomes stationary from that point to 20N73W. Scattered showers are noted along and west of the cold front mainly between 40W-50W. To the east, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1027 mb surface high centered near 34N16W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic N of 29N and W of 78W. Fresh northeasterly winds are noted in the southern half of the central Atlantic cold front. Seas are up to 9 ft near this front. The frontal boundary across the central Atlantic will weaken as it moves slowly east. High pressure ridge extending from the central Atlc SW to the NW Bahamas will remain in place, and weaken modestly Wed night through Thu. The next cold front will move into the NW waters Thu night, then reach from 25N65W to Hispaniola by Sat evening. Strong to near gale- force winds and building seas are expected across the waters N of 27N ahead of the front and behind the front Thu evening through Sat night. $$ ERA