000 AXNT20 KNHC 031710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1210 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01S30W to Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-06N between 00W-10W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to extend across the Gulf from a 1029 mb high in the western Atlantic near 35N57W. Fog is being reported across the north western and north central Gulf, N of 26N and W of 88W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds covering the basin with strong winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle southerly winds are along the Texas coast. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 88W. Upper level moisture is over the N Gulf N of 27N, while strong subsidence is over the S Gulf. Return flow will prevail across the Gulf through Wed ahead of a cold front expected to come off the Texas coast by Wed afternoon. The front will move SE and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon and exit the basin late Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front during the forecast period. Otherwise, dense fog is expected over the NW and NE Gulf through Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front drapes the northern Caribbean from 21N60W to 20N67W to N of Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Radar imagery also shows scattered showers over Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds north of Colombia with seas up to 9 ft. Moderate trades are seen elsewhere with seas ranging from 5 to 8 ft. Strong winds are also over northern Hispaniola. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 85W. Upper level subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. A ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward through Wed night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by Fri morning, extend from Haiti to Honduras by Sat evening before dissipating early on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Sat night, except for gale winds off the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 35N57W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 25N44W. A quasi-stationary front continues to N of the Leeward Islands near 21N60W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm NE of the fronts. A 1029 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 33N20W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic N of 29N and W of 78W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are noted in the southern half of the central Atlantic cold front, with strong winds on either side of the front N of 26N. Seas are up to 9 ft near this front. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 25N31W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the center. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Thu night, then reach from 25N65W to Hispaniola by Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front Thu evening through Sat night. $$ Formosa