000 AXNT20 KNHC 031120 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 620 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone/Liberia near 07N11W to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm on either sides of the boundaries between 15W-31W. Scattered strong convection is moving off the coasts of Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire from 03N-06N between 05W-12W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to extend across the Gulf from a 1027 mb high in the western Atlantic. Fog is being reported across the northwestern and central Gulf, N of 27N and W of 88W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds covering the basin with strong winds near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle southerly winds are along the Gulf coast. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft. High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Wed, then shift eastward. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Wed, and move SE of the basin by Fri. High pressure will rebuild in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across the Mona Passage from 18N67W to 17N69W. Scattered showers are noted along the front, impacting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds north of Colombia with seas up to 9 ft. Moderate trades are seen elsewhere with seas ranging from 5 to 8 ft. Strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Venezuela in addition northern Hispaniola. A ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward through Wed night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Fri, then extend from Haiti to Honduras by Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 34N61W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N50W to 21N59W. The tail-end of the front has stalled from 21N59W to the northern coast of Puerto Rico near 18N66W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the front. A 1026 mb surface high is over the eastern Atlantic near 32N22W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic N of 29N and W of 78W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are noted in the southern half of the central Atlantic cold front, with strong winds on either side of the front N of 26N. Seas are up to 9 ft near this front. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Thu night, then reach from 24N65W to Hispaniola by Sat night. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front. $$ AReinhart