000 AXNT20 KNHC 020550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 01S23W. The ITCZ begins from 01S23W to 02S31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. An area of strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 04S-01N between 21W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02S-06N between 08W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the basin. Strong easterly winds are north of the Yucatan. Seas are ranging between 6 to 8 ft in the western Gulf and between 2 to 5 ft in the eastern Gulf. Lower level water vapor also show high clouds streaming across Texas and making it into the northern Gulf of Mexico. No significant convection is noted in the area. High pressure ridge will prevail across the Gulf through Wed before retreating E. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW Gulf. The front will shift across the Gulf, shifting SE of the area by Fri morning. High pres will build in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dying stationary front extends from the coast of Hispaniola near 18N73W to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are noted along and west of the front, impacting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are also noted across the Lesser Antilles westward into eastern Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict strong to near gale force winds off the south- central coast of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale force easterly winds are noted north of Colombia, while gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas are up to 8 ft behind the front in the NW Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of Colombia, and between 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central basin. The stationary will dissipate tonight. The next cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early Fri. Strong winds will pulse to near gale force each night off the coast of Colombia through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front extends from 31N52W to 25N58W to 20N64W, then stalls from that point to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W. To the west, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N60W to 29N63W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northwesterly winds behind the reinforcing front. Seas are up to 12 ft near both of these fronts. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N26W. The primary front will dissipate early this week. High pressure will prevail elsewhere through midweek. The next cold front will enter the far NW forecast waters Thu night. $$ AKR