000 AXNT20 KNHC 012333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 633 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected today across the southern portions of central America, particularly eastern Costa Rica and northeastern Panama, in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slow moving frontal boundary. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01S22W. The ITCZ begins from 01S22W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 28N84W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the basin. Seas are ranging between 6 to 8 ft in the western Gulf and between 2 to 5 ft in the eastern Gulf. Lower level water vapor also show high clouds streaming across Texas and making it into the northern Gulf of Mexico. No significant convection is noted in the area. High pressure ridge will prevail across the Gulf through Wed before retreating E. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW Gulf. The front will shift across the Gulf, shifting SE of the area by Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front once again through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from 18N74W to the coast of Nicaragua near 11N84W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are noted along and west of the front, affecting Haiti, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are also noted across the Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh to strong NE winds off the south-central coast of Cuba and the Windward Passage ahead of the stationary front west of 78W. Fresh easterly winds are noted north of Colombia, while gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas are up to 7 ft behind the front in the NW Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of Colombia, and between 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central basin. The stationary front will dissipate tonight. The next cold front will enter the NW Caribbean by early Fri. Strong winds will pulse to near gale force each night off the coast of Colombia through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front extends from 31N55W to 22N64W, then stalls from that point to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W. To the west, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N65W to 29N68W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northwesterly winds behind the reinforcing front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N27W. The front will weaken and then dissipate by early Tue. High pressure will prevail elsewhere through mid-week. The next cold front will enter the far NW forecast waters Thu night. $$ ERA